OddsMetrica: independent World Cup 2026 predictions for all 72 fixtures. Model makes France the favourite at 14% to win. Probabilities + model-vs-market edges, not tips.
Independent World Cup 2026 predictions.
Honest edge, when it actually exists.
OddsMetrica runs a structural model across all 104 World Cup 2026 fixtures, combining squad depth, form, and market pricing into one probability output. We surface a value edge only when the model genuinely diverges from the market by 5+ points. No hot takes. No guaranteed winners.
An independent model across all 104 World Cup 2026 fixtures. We flag a value edge only when it is genuinely there.
Explore OddsMetrica
12 group standings, 48 teams, format guide, and the model's tournament outlook.
Full match-by-match probability table with structural, form, and market lenses.
Independently reviewed sportsbooks ranked by odds, markets, and payout speed.
Every match score with the model’s “did we call it” verdict.
All 12 group tables with the model’s advance probability.
Who qualified for the round of 32 and the knockout tree.
The Golden Boot race with goals, assists, and goal contributions.
How the model works
Three data sources, one honest output.
The model only flags an edge when it's genuinely there.
See the model in actionStructural
The baseline view of the matchup, before any recent noise.
What it does Simulates thousands of outcomes to estimate true win, draw and loss probabilities.
Live Form
Captures the momentum the baseline can't see.
What it does Adjusts the structural view for evolving performance and context.
Market (benchmark)
The market's opinion, de-vigged to strip out the bookmaker margin.
What it does Provides the market's fair probabilities as the benchmark.
World Cup 2026: the basics, and where the model fits
The 2026 World Cup is the biggest one yet: 48 teams, three host nations, and 104 matches across 39 days. Here is what is fixed, and how OddsMetrica reads the rest.
- When
- 11 June to 19 July 2026 (39 days)
- Where
- United States, Canada and Mexico, across 16 host cities
- Teams
- 48, up from 32, the largest field in World Cup history
- Format
- 12 groups of four; the top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams reach a 32-team knockout
- Final
- MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, 19 July 2026
OddsMetrica runs a structural model across all 72 fixtures, simulates the 12 groups, and prices every match against the market so you can see where the model and the bookmakers disagree. Probabilities update after every result, so the numbers on this page move with the tournament.
The model's current read. As it stands, OddsMetrica makes France the World Cup 2026 favourite at 14%, just ahead of Spain (12%) and England (11%). Argentina (9%) and United States (7%) round out the top five. These are championship probabilities from the structural model, not bookmaker prices, and they shift after every result.
World Cup 2026 winner odds
France leads the field at 14%, with Spain (12%) and England (11%) within touching distance. Those three form the top tier: a genuine three-way contest at the front of the market. Argentina (9%) and host nation United States (7%) head the chasing pack, followed closely by Brazil (6%) and Germany (6%). Portugal (5%) rounds out the group that the model considers realistic contenders. Below that, the gaps widen fast. These are championship probabilities from the structural model, not bookmaker prices. See every team's full outlook for knockout and group-stage probabilities, the winner predictions podium for all 48 teams, or compare any two teams head-to-head.
Who the model trusts to advance
Group-stage exit risk is not evenly spread. France (97%), Spain (98%) and England (97%) are the model's safest group-stage qualifiers: near-certainties to reach the knockout rounds. At the other end, the dark-horse watch list is led by Uruguay (87% to advance, just 1% to win it). Teams with a strong advance probability but a low title probability are worth tracking in knockout markets: they regularly beat their seeding in the last 16.
Group by group: model favourites
The model runs thousands of simulations per group to estimate each team's chance of advancing. Here is how it reads all 12 groups, sorted by advance probability. The top two qualify automatically; the best eight third-placed teams also go through.
Advance probabilities are from the structural model and update after each result. Full group tables and knockout simulations live on the World Cup 2026 hub.
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