World Cup 2026 Predictions

Out of 99 matches played so far, the structural model called 68 correctly (69%). We publish every call, hits and misses, so the track record stays honest. One match is one data point; the value is in the full distribution across all 104 fixtures.

A value pick means our structural model assigns a team meaningfully more probability than the de-vigged market does, specifically, a gap of 5 percentage points or more on the team side. That's the green chip showing "Team +X%". A neutral chip means our model and the market agree within a few points, so there's no exploitable team-side edge. Value picks aren't guaranteed winners, they're cases where the math says the market may be mispricing the outcome.

The structural model runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations per match, weighing squad strength, ELO ratings, recent form, rest days, travel distance, venue altitude, and climate. It produces a probability distribution across all outcomes, win/draw/win, that's then compared against the de-vigged market consensus to find divergences. A separate live-form lens weights recent results and injuries more heavily. When the two lenses agree, confidence is higher. When they diverge, that's the honest caveat we put on every prediction page.

All upcoming matches are in line with the market right now, no team-side edges above the 5% threshold. Check back as more market data lands closer to kickoff.