Winner predictions
Who wins World Cup 2026?
The structural model's live probabilities to lift the trophy. France leads at 14% — Spain (12%) and the field give chase. Every probability below is a model output, not a certainty.
France leads the model's World Cup 2026 winner probabilities at 14%, ahead of Spain (12%). Independent structural-model probabilities for all 48 teams, updated after every result.
All 48 teams, by stage probability
Champion, finalist, semi-final and group-advance probabilities from the structural model.
| # | Team | Champion | Final | Semi | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 14% | 22% | 35% | 97% |
| 2 |  Spain | 12% | 20% | 33% | 98% |
| 3 |  England | 11% | 19% | 31% | 97% |
| 4 |  Argentina | 9% | 17% | 29% | 97% |
| 5 |  United States | 7% | 13% | 23% | 93% |
| 6 |  Brazil | 6% | 11% | 20% | 95% |
| 7 |  Germany | 6% | 12% | 22% | 96% |
| 8 |  Portugal | 5% | 11% | 21% | 93% |
| 9 |  Belgium | 4% | 8% | 16% | 95% |
| 10 |  Mexico | 4% | 8% | 17% | 93% |
| 11 |  Netherlands | 4% | 8% | 16% | 89% |
| 12 |  Canada | 2% | 4% | 11% | 90% |
| 13 |  Croatia | 2% | 4% | 10% | 86% |
| 14 |  Morocco | 2% | 5% | 11% | 89% |
| 15 |  Switzerland | 2% | 4% | 10% | 89% |
| 16 |  Austria | 1% | 2% | 5% | 76% |
| 17 |  Colombia | 1% | 3% | 8% | 82% |
| 18 |  Ecuador | 1% | 2% | 6% | 82% |
| 19 |  Japan | 1% | 4% | 8% | 80% |
| 20 |  Norway | 1% | 2% | 6% | 74% |
| 21 |  Senegal | 1% | 2% | 6% | 72% |
| 22 |  Turkey | 1% | 3% | 8% | 75% |
| 23 |  Uruguay | 1% | 3% | 9% | 87% |
| 24 |  Algeria | 0% | 2% | 4% | 73% |
| 25 |  Australia | 0% | 1% | 3% | 55% |
| 26 |  Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0% | 0% | 1% | 56% |
| 27 |  Cape Verde | 0% | 0% | 0% | 29% |
| 28 |  Curaçao | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16% |
| 29 |  Czech Republic | 0% | 1% | 2% | 63% |
| 30 |  DR Congo | 0% | 0% | 1% | 47% |
| 31 |  Egypt | 0% | 1% | 3% | 71% |
| 32 |  Ghana | 0% | 0% | 1% | 40% |
| 33 |  Haiti | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% |
| 34 |  Iran | 0% | 1% | 2% | 67% |
| 35 |  Iraq | 0% | 0% | 0% | 23% |
| 36 |  Ivory Coast | 0% | 1% | 4% | 76% |
| 37 |  Jordan | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% |
| 38 |  New Zealand | 0% | 0% | 0% | 34% |
| 39 |  Panama | 0% | 0% | 1% | 37% |
| 40 |  Paraguay | 0% | 0% | 2% | 46% |
| 41 |  Qatar | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 42 |  Saudi Arabia | 0% | 0% | 1% | 41% |
| 43 |  Scotland | 0% | 1% | 2% | 64% |
| 44 |  South Africa | 0% | 0% | 1% | 40% |
| 45 |  South Korea | 0% | 1% | 5% | 74% |
| 46 |  Sweden | 0% | 1% | 4% | 66% |
| 47 |  Tunisia | 0% | 0% | 1% | 37% |
| 48 |  Uzbekistan | 0% | 0% | 1% | 46% |