Summary

World Cup 2026 hub: 48 teams in 12 groups across the USA, Canada and Mexico, 11 June to 19 July 2026. Model makes France the favourite at 14%.

FIFA World Cup 2026

World Cup 2026

48 teams. 12 groups. 3 host countries (USA, Canada, Mexico). 99 of 104 group-stage matches done, 0 still to play. The model's current title favourite is France (14% to lift the trophy). See the full winner predictions podium for all 48 teams, or compare any two teams head-to-head.

Groups Results Standings Bracket Top Scorers Upcoming Format All 104 predictions

Group Standings

Standings computed from 99 played matches. The Advance % column is the model's probability each team progresses past the group stage.

80%+ high advance probability | 50-79% moderate | below 50% uncertain

Final

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Argentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	97%
Spain	0	0	0	0	0	0	98%

Group A

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Mexico	3	3	0	0	+6	9	93%
South Africa	3	1	1	1	-1	4	40%
South Korea	3	1	0	2	-1	3	74%
Czech Republic	3	0	1	2	-4	1	63%

Group B

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Switzerland	3	2	1	0	+4	7	89%
Canada	3	1	1	1	+5	4	90%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	-1	4	56%
Qatar	3	0	1	2	-8	1	33%

Group C

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Brazil	3	2	1	0	+6	7	95%
Morocco	3	2	1	0	+3	7	89%
Scotland	3	1	0	2	-3	3	64%
Haiti	3	0	0	3	-6	0	20%

Group D

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
United States	3	2	0	1	+4	6	93%
Australia	3	1	1	1	0	4	55%
Paraguay	3	1	1	1	-2	4	46%
Turkey	3	1	0	2	-2	3	75%

Group E

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Germany	3	2	0	1	+6	6	96%
Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	+2	6	76%
Ecuador	3	1	1	1	0	4	82%
Curaçao	3	0	1	2	-8	1	16%

Group F

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Netherlands	3	2	1	0	+6	7	89%
Japan	3	1	2	0	+4	5	80%
Sweden	3	1	1	1	0	4	66%
Tunisia	3	0	0	3	-10	0	37%

Group G

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Belgium	3	1	2	0	+4	5	95%
Egypt	3	1	2	0	+2	5	71%
Iran	3	0	3	0	0	3	67%
New Zealand	3	0	1	2	-6	1	34%

Group H

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Spain	3	2	1	0	+5	7	98%
Cape Verde	3	0	3	0	0	3	29%
Uruguay	3	0	2	1	-1	2	87%
Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	-4	2	41%

Group I

Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
France	3	3	0	+8	9	97%
Norway	3	2	1	+1	6	74%
Senegal	3	1	2	+2	3	72%
Iraq	3	0	3	-11	0	23%

Group J

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Argentina	3	3	0	0	+7	9	97%
Austria	3	1	1	1	0	4	76%
Algeria	3	1	1	1	-2	4	73%
Jordan	3	0	0	3	-5	0	22%

Group K

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Colombia	3	2	1	0	+3	7	82%
Portugal	3	1	2	0	+5	5	93%
DR Congo	3	1	1	1	+1	4	47%
Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	-9	0	46%

Group L

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
England	3	2	1	0	+4	7	97%
Croatia	3	2	0	1	0	6	86%
Ghana	3	1	1	1	0	4	40%
Panama	3	0	0	3	-4	0	37%

Quarter-final

Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Argentina	1	1	0	+2	3	97%
France	1	1	0	+2	3	97%
England	1	1	0	+1	3	97%
Spain	1	1	0	+1	3	98%
Belgium	1	0	1	-1	0	95%
Norway	1	0	1	-1	0	74%
Switzerland	1	0	1	-2	0	89%
Morocco	1	0	1	-2	0	89%

Round of 16

Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Belgium	1	1	0	+3	3	95%
Morocco	1	1	0	+3	3	89%
Argentina	1	1	0	+1	3	97%
England	1	1	0	+1	3	97%
Norway	1	1	0	+1	3	74%
France	1	1	0	+1	3	97%
Spain	1	1	0	+1	3	98%
Colombia	0	0	0	0	0	82%
Switzerland	0	0	0	0	0	89%
Egypt	1	0	1	-1	0	71%
Mexico	1	0	1	-1	0	93%
Brazil	1	0	1	-1	0	95%
Paraguay	1	0	1	-1	0	46%
Portugal	1	0	1	-1	0	93%
United States	1	0	1	-3	0	93%
Canada	1	0	1	-3	0	90%

Round of 32

Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
France	1	1	0	+3	3	97%
Spain	1	1	0	+3	3	98%
Mexico	1	1	0	+2	3	93%
Switzerland	1	1	0	+2	3	89%
United States	1	1	0	+2	3	93%
Argentina	1	1	0	+1	3	97%
Belgium	1	1	0	+1	3	95%
Brazil	1	1	0	+1	3	95%
England	1	1	0	+1	3	97%
Norway	1	1	0	+1	3	74%
Portugal	1	1	0	+1	3	93%
Canada	1	1	0	+1	3	90%
Colombia	1	1	0	+1	3	82%
Australia	0	0	0	0	0	55%
Egypt	0	0	0	0	0	71%
Germany	0	0	0	0	0	96%
Morocco	0	0	0	0	0	89%
Netherlands	0	0	0	0	0	89%
Paraguay	0	0	0	0	0	46%
Cape Verde	1	0	1	-1	0	29%
Senegal	1	0	1	-1	0	72%
Croatia	1	0	1	-1	0	86%
DR Congo	1	0	1	-1	0	47%
Ivory Coast	1	0	1	-1	0	76%
Japan	1	0	1	-1	0	80%
Ghana	1	0	1	-1	0	40%
South Africa	1	0	1	-1	0	40%
Algeria	1	0	1	-2	0	73%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	1	0	1	-2	0	56%
Ecuador	1	0	1	-2	0	82%
Austria	1	0	1	-3	0	76%
Sweden	1	0	1	-3	0	66%

Semi-final

Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
Spain	1	1	0	+2	3	98%
Argentina	1	1	0	+1	3	97%
England	1	0	1	-1	0	97%
France	1	0	1	-2	0	97%

Third place

Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Adv%
England	1	1	0	0	+2	3	97%
France	1	0	0	1	-2	0	97%

How World Cup 2026 Works

Group Stage (48 teams, 12 groups)

Each group has 4 teams playing round-robin -- 3 games each. The top two from every group advance automatically. The best 8 third-placed teams (ranked by points, GD, GF) also advance. That gives 32 teams in the round of 32 -- a new format for WC2026.

Round of 32

The 32 qualifiers enter a single-elimination bracket. Win or go home. The bracket seeding is fixed after the group stage and announced by FIFA based on final group standings and which third-place slot each team came through.

Round of 16 to Quarter-finals to Semi-finals to Final

Standard knockout from the R32 onwards. Extra time and penalties apply if level after 90 minutes. The final is at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford (New York/New Jersey) on 19 July 2026.

Projected group winners (model)

Highest advance% per group -- not the official draw. The knockout bracket depends on final standings and FIFA seeding rules.

Final

Spain

Mexico

Canada

Brazil

United States

Germany

Netherlands

Belgium

Spain

France

Argentina

Portugal

England

Quarter-final

Spain

Round of 16

Spain

Round of 32

Spain

Semi-final

Spain

Third place

England

All 104 predictions

Every group-stage match with model probabilities, value edges, and scoreline markets.

Explore

All 48 teams

Every nation grouped A-L with champion probability and links to each team page.

All teams

Top players

The 60 most-capped internationals at this tournament, with positions and full profiles.

Top players

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World Cup 2026 FAQ

Who does the model favour to win World Cup 2026?

France are the model's current title favourite with a 14% chance to win the tournament and a 97% probability to advance from the group stage. These are structural-model probabilities -- not tips. France, Spain, England, and Argentina are the next tier. See the full team pages for each nation's breakdown.

How does World Cup 2026 qualification work for the group stage?

WC2026 uses 12 groups of 4. The top 2 teams in each group (24 teams) advance automatically. The best 8 third-placed finishers -- ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored across all third-place slots -- also go through, giving 32 teams in the round of 32. This is the first World Cup with a 48-team format.

Where is the World Cup 2026 being played?

FIFA World Cup 2026 is co-hosted by the USA, Canada, and Mexico -- the first three-nation World Cup. The 16 venues span cities including New York/New Jersey (MetLife Stadium, the final), Los Angeles (SoFi Stadium), Dallas (AT&T Stadium), Mexico City (Estadio Azteca), and Toronto (BMO Field). The tournament runs 11 June to 19 July 2026.

How does the OddsMetrica model work?

The structural model runs Monte Carlo simulations for each match weighing squad strength, ELO ratings, recent form, rest days, travel, and venue factors. It outputs a probability distribution across home win / draw / away win. When market odds are available, the model compares its probabilities against the de-vigged market to identify value edges -- cases where the structural model diverges by 5+ percentage points. Every call is published before kick-off and updated with the result after.