Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar (FT). Group B, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Bosnia and Herzegovina at 42% — it called it.
Bosnia and Herzegovina3-1Qatar (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group B tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
QatarWe made Bosnia and Herzegovina our pick at 42%, and that's how it finished (3-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Bosnia and Herzegovina Qatar Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1 in Group B at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Kerim Alajbegović, set up by Ivan Bašić, opened the scoring on 29'. Moments later, an own goal doubled the lead on 34'. Soon after, Hassan Al-Haydos, set up by Edmilson Junior, pulled one back for Qatar on 42'. Then Ermin Mahmić, set up by Dennis Hadžikadunić, added a third on 80'.
Bosnia and Herzegovina controlled the ball with 56% possession and 14 shots to Qatar's 7. An expected-goals figure of 0.65 to 0.67 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Bosnia and Herzegovina the 42% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Bosnia and Herzegovina 42%, Draw 33%, Qatar 26%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group B clash. The four goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought two bookings and ten substitutions.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Kerim Alajbegović Assist: Ivan Bašić GOAL Mahmud Abunada GOAL Hassan Al-Haydos Assist: Edmilson Junior GOAL Ivan Šunjić for Benjamin Tahirović SUB Arjan Malić for Amar Memić SUB Jassem Gaber for Abdulaziz Hatem SUB Hassan Al-Haydos for Ahmed Al-Ganehi SUB Nikola Katić for Dennis Hadžikadunić SUB Edin Džeko for Ermin Mahmić SUB Karim Boudiaf for Almoez Ali SUB Ahmed Fathy YELLOW Edmilson Junior for Ahmed Alaaeldin SUB Ahmed Fathy for Mohamed Al-Mannai SUB Ermin Mahmić Assist: Dennis Hadžikadunić GOAL Kerim Alajbegović for Dženis Burnić SUB Ermin Mahmić YELLOW Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar in this World Cup 2026 Group B clash. Bosnia and Herzegovina set up in a 4-4-2 and Qatar in a 4-3-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Kerim Alajbegović and Hassan Al-Haydos scored from the starting XI.
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Qatar 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Bosnia and Herzegovina's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs United States (0-2). Live-form lens has them at 42%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Qatar's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (1-3). Live-form lens: 27%.
The model expects roughly 2.14 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Bosnia and Herzegovina the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Qatar3 meetings on record between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar |
| 2010 | Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 Qatar |
| 2000 | Qatar 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina |
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