Canada 1-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina (FT). Group B, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Canada at 49% — it missed.
Canada1-1Bosnia and Herzegovina (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group B tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Canada
Bosnia and HerzegovinaWe made Canada our pick at 49%; it finished 1-1 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Canada Bosnia and Herzegovina Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina shared a 1-1 draw in Group B at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Jovo Lukić, set up by Sead Kolašinac, opened the scoring on 21'. Later, Cyle Larin, set up by Promise David, levelled it at 1-1 on 78'.
Canada controlled the ball with 60% possession and 12 shots to Bosnia and Herzegovina's 8. An expected-goals figure of 1.06 to 0.98 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Canada the 49% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Canada 49%, Draw 30%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 21%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Canada Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina drew 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group B clash. The two goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought five bookings and ten substitutions.
Canada Alistair Johnston YELLOW Jovo Lukić Assist: Sead Kolašinac GOAL Ermedin Demirović YELLOW Jovo Lukić YELLOW Luc de Fougerolles YELLOW Liam Millar for Jacob Shaffelburg SUB Jonathan David for Promise David SUB Tajon Buchanan for Ali Ahmed SUB Jovo Lukić for Samed Baždar SUB Ivan Bašić for Armin Gigović SUB Esmir Bajraktarević for Ivan Šunjić SUB Amar Memić for Kerim Alajbegović SUB Tani Oluwaseyi for Cyle Larin SUB Cyle Larin Assist: Promise David GOAL Sead Kolašinac for Dženis Burnić SUB Stephen Eustáquio for Jonathan Osorio SUB Nikola Katić YELLOW Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina in this World Cup 2026 Group B clash. Canada set up in a 4-4-2 and Bosnia and Herzegovina in a 4-4-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Jovo Lukić scored from the starting XI.
Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Canada 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Canada's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Morocco (0-3). Live-form lens has them at 70%, a 21pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Bosnia and Herzegovina's OutlookLast time out: lost vs United States (0-2). Live-form lens: 9% (12pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.33 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Canada the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Canada Bosnia and Herzegovina1 meeting on record between Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Canada 1-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina |
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