Summary

Canada 0-3 Morocco (FT). Round of 16, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Morocco at 41% — it called it.

Canada vs Morocco Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

Canada0-3Morocco (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 16 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

Canada

90%Advance

11%Semi

4%Final

2%Champion

Morocco

89%Advance

11%Semi

5%Final

2%Champion

Our model called it

We made Morocco our pick at 41%, and that's how it finished (0-3). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: Morocco 41% Structural: 28/31/41 Actual: Morocco win (0-3)

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Final Result FT

Sat, Jul 4 · Houston, TX · Match 16 · Round of 16

Canada

Morocco

Full-time Score Model called it

0 FT 3

Canada Morocco

Model pick: Morocco at 41%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

Very Hot Humid IndoorHouston, TX conditions

Neutral venueNeither side at home

15 mHouston, TX elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

Morocco beat Canada 3-0 in Round of 16 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 16. Azzedine Ounahi, set up by Achraf Hakimi, opened the scoring on 50'. Later, Azzedine Ounahi, set up by Brahim Díaz, doubled the lead on 82'. Soon after, Soufiane Rahimi, set up by Brahim Díaz, added a third on 90'.

Morocco controlled the ball with 55% possession and 5 shots to Canada's 10. An expected-goals figure of 0.84 to 0.82 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.

Our structural model had made Morocco the 41% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Canada 28%, Draw 31%, Morocco 41%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

Canada

FT 0 - 3

Morocco

xG 0.84 vs 0.82

Total shots

Shots on goal

45%

Possession

55%

Corners

Fouls

76%

Pass accuracy

82%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

359

Total passes

473

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

Morocco beat Canada 3-0 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 16 clash. All three goals arrived after the restart, in a second half that also brought eight bookings and ten substitutions.

Canada

0 - 3 FT

Morocco

3 Goals

8 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

10 Substitutions

11 Key Moments

20'

Redouane Halhal YELLOW

22'

Ismael Saibari for Soufiane Rahimi SUB

40'

Richie Laryea YELLOW

40'

Achraf Hakimi YELLOW

43'

Jonathan David YELLOW

45'

Bilal El Khannouss YELLOW

45'

Azzedine Ounahi YELLOW

49'

Luc de Fougerolles YELLOW

50'

Azzedine Ounahi Assist: Achraf Hakimi GOAL

63'

Tani Oluwaseyi for Cyle Larin SUB

63'

Ayyoub Bouaddi for Sofyan Amrabat SUB

63'

Bilal El Khannouss for Chemsdine Talbi SUB

67'

Cyle Larin YELLOW

78'

Richie Laryea for Jacob Shaffelburg SUB

78'

Ali Ahmed for Promise David SUB

82'

Azzedine Ounahi Assist: Brahim Díaz GOAL

87'

Tajon Buchanan for Jayden Nelson SUB

87'

Niko Sigur for Jonathan Osorio SUB

87'

Azzedine Ounahi for Samir El Mourabet SUB

87'

Issa Diop for Marwane Saadane SUB

90'

Soufiane Rahimi Assist: Brahim Díaz GOAL

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Canada vs Morocco in this World Cup 2026 Round of 16 clash. Canada set up in a 4-4-2 and Morocco in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Azzedine Ounahi scored from the starting XI.

Canada vs Morocco

Canada 4-4-2 Confirmed XI

Jonathan David Key player · 7.2

Richie Laryea Key player · 7.7

Tajon Buchanan Key player · 6.9

Goalkeeper

16 Maxime Crépeau 6.6 GK

Defence

22 Richie Laryea 7.7 RB

2 Alistair Johnston 7.3 RB

15 Moïse Bombito 7.3 CB

4 Luc de Fougerolles 6.8 CB

Midfield

7 Stephen Eustáquio 7.4 CM

20 Ali Ahmed 6.9 LM

23 Niko Sigur 6.7 DM

Attack

10 Jonathan David 7.2 CF

17 Tajon Buchanan 6.9 RW

12 Tani Oluwaseyi 6.3 CF

63' Cyle Larin for Tani Oluwaseyi

78' Jacob Shaffelburg for Richie Laryea

78' Promise David for Ali Ahmed

87' Jayden Nelson for Tajon Buchanan

87' Jonathan Osorio for Niko Sigur

Morocco 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI

Achraf Hakimi Key player · 7.7

Bono Key player · 5.7

Azzedine Ounahi Key player · 6.7

Goalkeeper

1 Bono 5.7 GK

Defence

2 Achraf Hakimi 7.7 RB

14 Issa Diop CB

3 Noussair Mazraoui 6.7 RB

25 Redouane Halhal 6.6 CB

Midfield

8 Azzedine Ounahi 2 6.7 CM

11 Ismael Saibari 7.2 AM

23 Bilal El Khannouss 8.9 M

24 Neil El Aynaoui 6.6 CM

6 Ayyoub Bouaddi CM

Attack

10 Brahim Díaz 6.4 RW

22' Soufiane Rahimi for Ismael Saibari

63' Sofyan Amrabat for Ayyoub Bouaddi

63' Chemsdine Talbi for Bilal El Khannouss

87' Samir El Mourabet for Azzedine Ounahi

87' Marwane Saadane for Issa Diop

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

The structural model rates Canada the value side here at a +7% gap to the market. The caveat is real, our live-form lens leans the other way, which is why confidence sits at Medium. Here is the honest case on both sides.

Canada's Outlook

Their last outing: a loss vs Morocco (0-3).

Jonathan Osorio (Midfielder, 34) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Cyle Larin (Forward, 31) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Morocco's Outlook

Last time out: lost vs France (0-2).

Achraf Hakimi (Defender, 28) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Yassine Bounou (Goalkeeper, 35) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.38 goals here.

BTTS at 48% and Over 2.5 at 43% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The Morocco win line (41%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

The +7% structural edge on Canada is the headline. The fair-odds table makes it concrete.

The live-form lens is the caveat, which is why confidence is Medium.
The structural edge is the bigger, slower signal worth weighing.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

Canada CONCACAF

Group B, 2nd

CAF Morocco

Group C, 2nd

27.6%

Win Probability

Favourite 41.3%

90.3%

Advance to Knockout

88.6%

10.6%

Reach the Semis

11.4%

4.4%

Reach the Final

5.4%

1.65%

Champion Chance

2.26%

2.47 Stronger attack

xG per Match

1.93

Insight: Our model gives Morocco the edge, fractionally ahead on four of six measures: a higher win probability, a clearer path to the semis and stronger odds of reaching the final.

View full match stats Round of 16 standings & all matches

Round of 16: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

Canada

Jonathan Osorio C

Midfielder · 34 · Toronto FC (CAN)

92Caps

10Goals

Cyle Larin

Forward · 31 · Southampton FC (ENG)

91Caps

31Goals

Jonathan David

Forward · 26 · Juventus FC (ITA)

78Caps

39Goals

Richie Laryea

Defender · 31 · Toronto FC (CAN)

77Caps

1Goals

Morocco

Achraf Hakimi C

Defender · 28 · Paris Saint-Germain (FRA)

97Caps

11Goals

Yassine Bounou

Goalkeeper · 35 · Al Hilal SC (KSA)

91Caps

0Goals

Sofyan Amrabat

Midfielder · 30 · Real Betis (ESP)

75Caps

0Goals

Ayoub El Kaabi

Forward · 33 · Olympiacos FC (GRE)

71Caps

36Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

L0-3

vs Morocco

W1-0

vs South Africa

L1-2

vs Switzerland

W6-0

vs Qatar

D1-1

vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

View match analysis

L0-2

vs France

W3-0

vs Canada

D1-1

vs Netherlands

W4-2

vs Haiti

W1-0

vs Scotland

View match analysis

Canada and Morocco have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.

View match analysis

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Canada vs Morocco end?

Canada 0-3 Morocco (FT) in the Round of 16 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Houston, TX. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get Canada vs Morocco right?

Yes. Our structural model made Morocco the pick at 41% (28/31/41), and the match finished morocco win (0-3). The model called it.

When and where was Canada vs Morocco played?

Saturday, July 4, 2026, Houston, TX. Round of 16 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 28/31/41 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between Canada and Morocco?

This was the first recorded competitive meeting between Canada and Morocco in our dataset.