Canada 6-0 Qatar (FT). Group B, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Canada at 58% — it called it.
Canada6-0Qatar (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group B tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Canada
QatarWe made Canada our pick at 58%, and that's how it finished (6-0). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Canada Qatar Canada beat Qatar 6-0 in Group B at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Cyle Larin opened the scoring on 16'. Later, Jonathan David doubled the lead on 29'. Jonathan David added a third on 45'. Then Nathan Saliba added a fourth on 64'. Later, an own goal made it 5-0 on 75'. Jonathan David, set up by Nathan Saliba, made it 6-0 on 90'.
Canada controlled the ball with 79% possession and 30 shots to Qatar's 2. An expected-goals figure of 4.11 to 0.18 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Canada generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Canada the 58% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Canada 58%, Draw 28%, Qatar 15%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Canada Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Canada beat Qatar 6-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group B clash. The six goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a disallowed effort, two red cards, two bookings, and ten substitutions.
Canada Derek Cornelius YELLOW Cyle Larin GOAL Jonathan David GOAL Tajon Buchanan Penalty cancelled VAR Homam Ahmed RED Homam Ahmed Card upgrade VAR Yusuf Abdurisag for Sultan Al-Brake SUB Jonathan David GOAL Derek Cornelius for Moïse Bombito SUB Jassem Gaber for Mohamed Al-Mannai SUB Edmilson Junior for Ahmed Fathy SUB Assim Madibo RED Assim Madibo Card upgrade VAR Ismaël Koné for Nathan Saliba SUB Akram Afif SUB Ahmed Fathy YELLOW Nathan Saliba GOAL Ali Ahmed for Tani Oluwaseyi SUB Luc de Fougerolles for Jacob Shaffelburg SUB Mohamed Al-Mannai GOAL Tajon Buchanan for Niko Sigur SUB Ahmed Fathy for Lucas Mendes SUB Jonathan David Assist: Nathan Saliba GOAL Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Canada vs Qatar in this World Cup 2026 Group B clash. Canada set up in a 4-4-2 and Qatar in a 4-3-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Cyle Larin and Jonathan David scored from the starting XI.
Canada vs Qatar Canada 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Qatar 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Canada's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Morocco (0-3). Live-form lens has them at 77%, a 19pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Qatar's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (1-3). Live-form lens: 5% (10pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.42 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Canada the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Canada Qatar2 meetings on record between Canada and Qatar.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Canada 6-0 Qatar |
| 2022 | Canada 2-0 Qatar |
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