Summary

England 4-2 Croatia (FT). Group L, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was England at 50% — it called it.

England vs Croatia Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

England4-2Croatia (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group L tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

England

97%Advance

31%Semi

19%Final

11%Champion

Croatia

86%Advance

10%Semi

4%Final

2%Champion

Our model called it

We made England our pick at 50%, and that's how it finished (4-2). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: England 50% Structural: 50/28/21 Actual: England win (4-2)

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Final Result FT

Wed, Jun 17 · Arlington · Match 1 · Group L

England

Croatia

Full-time Score Model called it

4 FT 2

England Croatia

Model pick: England at 50%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

Very Hot IndoorArlington conditions

0 / 0 kmTravel, ENG / CRO

30 days eachRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

175 mArlington elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

England beat Croatia 4-2 in Group L at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Harry Kane opened the scoring on 12'. Later, Martin Baturina, set up by Petar Sučić, levelled it at 1-1 on 36'. Soon after, Harry Kane, set up by Declan Rice, restored England's lead on 42'. Moments later, Petar Musa, set up by Ivan Perišić, levelled it at 2-2 on 45'. Soon after, Jude Bellingham, set up by Elliot Anderson, restored England's lead on 47'. Marcus Rashford, set up by Bukayo Saka, added a fourth on 85'.

England controlled the ball with 52% possession and 21 shots to Croatia's 8. An expected-goals figure of 2.82 to 0.53 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. England generated the clearer chances by some distance.

Our structural model had made England the 50% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was England 50%, Draw 28%, Croatia 21%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

England

FT 4 - 2

Croatia

xG 2.82 vs 0.53

Total shots

Shots on goal

52%

Possession

48%

Corners

Fouls

86%

Pass accuracy

86%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

469

Total passes

429

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

England beat Croatia 4-2 in their World Cup 2026 Group L clash. The six goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought ten substitutions.

England

4 - 2 FT

Croatia

6 Goals

0 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

10 Substitutions

6 Key Moments

12'

Harry Kane GOAL

36'

Martin Baturina Assist: Petar Sučić GOAL

42'

Harry Kane Assist: Declan Rice GOAL

45'

Petar Musa Assist: Ivan Perišić GOAL

47'

Jude Bellingham Assist: Elliot Anderson GOAL

58'

Luka Modrić for Mateo Kovačić SUB

66'

Luka Vušković for Marco Pašalić SUB

66'

Petar Musa for Igor Matanović SUB

72'

Anthony Gordon for Marcus Rashford SUB

72'

Noni Madueke for Bukayo Saka SUB

72'

Declan Rice for Morgan Rogers SUB

78'

Martin Baturina for Nikola Vlašić SUB

79'

Mario Pašalić for Andrej Kramarić SUB

80'

Jude Bellingham for Djed Spence SUB

85'

Marcus Rashford Assist: Bukayo Saka GOAL

87'

John Stones for Marc Guéhi SUB

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for England vs Croatia in this World Cup 2026 Group L clash. England set up in a 3-4-3 and Croatia in a 4-5-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Harry Kane, Martin Baturina, and Petar Musa scored from the starting XI.

England vs Croatia

England 3-4-3 Confirmed XI

Harry Kane Key player · 7.8

John Stones Key player · 8.3

Jordan Pickford Key player · 7.0

Goalkeeper

1 Jordan Pickford 7.0 GK

Defence

5 John Stones 8.3 CB

2 Ezri Konsa 7.4 CB

24 Reece James 7.5 RB

Midfield

4 Declan Rice 7.1 DM

10 Jude Bellingham 6.6 AM

8 Elliot Anderson 7.1 CM

3 Nico O'Reilly 6.6 M

Attack

9 Harry Kane 2 7.8 CF

18 Anthony Gordon 6.6 LW

20 Noni Madueke 6.8 RW

72' Marcus Rashford for Anthony Gordon

72' Bukayo Saka for Noni Madueke

72' Morgan Rogers for Declan Rice

80' Djed Spence for Jude Bellingham

87' Marc Guéhi for John Stones

Croatia 4-5-1 Confirmed XI

Luka Modrić Key player · 7.5

Ivan Perišić Key player · 6.8

Mario Pašalić Key player · 6.7

Goalkeeper

1 Dominik Livaković 6.6 GK

Defence

4 Joško Gvardiol 7.6 CB

2 Josip Stanišić 7.1 RB

6 Josip Šutalo 7.2 CB

22 Luka Vušković 6.8 CB

Midfield

15 Mario Pašalić 6.7 CM

10 Luka Modrić 7.5 CM

14 Ivan Perišić 6.8 LM

16 Martin Baturina 7.2 AM

17 Petar Sučić 7.4 CM

Attack

26 Petar Musa 6.5 CF

58' Mateo Kovačić for Luka Modrić

66' Marco Pašalić for Luka Vušković

66' Igor Matanović for Petar Musa

78' Nikola Vlašić for Martin Baturina

79' Andrej Kramarić for Mario Pašalić

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

England's Outlook

Their last outing: a win vs France (6-4). Live-form lens has them at 43%, a 7pp split from the structural read worth noting.

Harry Kane (Forward, 33) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
John Stones (Defender, 32) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Croatia's Outlook

Last time out: lost vs Portugal (1-2). Live-form lens: 28% (7pp divergence from structural).

Luka Modrić (Midfielder, 41) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Ivan Perišić (Forward, 37) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.6 goals here.

BTTS at 49% and Over 2.5 at 48% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The England win line (50%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

England UEFA

Group L, 1st

UEFA Croatia

Group L, 2nd

50.4% Favourite

Win Probability

21.1%

97%

Advance to Knockout

86.1%

31.3%

Reach the Semis

10.1%

19.4%

Reach the Final

11.17%

Champion Chance

1.56%

1.90 Stronger attack

xG per Match

0.93

Insight: Our model gives England the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group L standings & all matches

Group L: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

England

Harry Kane C

Forward · 33 · FC Bayern München (GER)

115Caps

81Goals

John Stones

Defender · 32 · Manchester City FC (ENG)

90Caps

3Goals

Jordan Henderson

Midfielder · 36 · Brentford FC (ENG)

90Caps

3Goals

Jordan Pickford

Goalkeeper · 32 · Everton FC (ENG)

85Caps

0Goals

Croatia

Luka Modrić C

Midfielder · 41 · AC Milan (ITA)

199Caps

29Goals

Ivan Perišić

Forward · 37 · PSV Eindhoven (NED)

155Caps

38Goals

Andrej Kramarić

Forward · 35 · TSG Hoffenheim (GER)

117Caps

36Goals

Mateo Kovačić

Midfielder · 32 · Manchester City FC (ENG)

114Caps

5Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

W6-4

vs France

L1-2

vs Argentina

W2-1

vs Norway

W3-2

vs Mexico

W2-1

vs DR Congo

View match analysis

L1-2

vs Portugal

W2-1

vs Ghana

W1-0

vs Panama

L2-4

vs England

W2-1

vs Slovenia

View match analysis

12 meetings on record between England and Croatia.

Year	Score
2026	England 4-2 Croatia
2021	England 1-0 Croatia
2018	England 2-1 Croatia
2018	Croatia 0-0 England
2018	Croatia 2-1 England

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did England vs Croatia end?

England 4-2 Croatia (FT) in the Group L stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Arlington. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get England vs Croatia right?

Yes. Our structural model made England the pick at 50% (50/28/21), and the match finished england win (4-2). The model called it.

When and where was England vs Croatia played?

Wednesday, June 17, 2026, Arlington. Group L stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 50/28/21 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between England and Croatia?

Before this match, England and Croatia had met 12 times: 7 England wins, 3 Croatia wins, 2 draws.