France's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs England (4-6).
- Kylian Mbappé (Forward, 28) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- N'Golo Kanté (Midfielder, 35) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
France 4-6 England (FT). Third place, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was France at 37% — it missed.
France vs England Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
France4-6England (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Third place tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
France97%Advance
35%Semi
22%Final
14%Champion
England97%Advance
31%Semi
19%Final
11%Champion
Our model missed
We made France our pick at 37%; it finished 4-6 (england win). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Final Result FT
France England
Full-time Score
Model missed
4 FT 6
France England
Model picked France at 37%. Missed (actual: England win). Full breakdown
FT · model missed Match stats
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
England beat France 6-4 in Third place at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Declan Rice opened the scoring on 3'. Later, Ezri Konsa, set up by Declan Rice, doubled the lead on 18'. Bukayo Saka, set up by Marcus Rashford, added a third on 37'. Moments later, Bukayo Saka, set up by Eberechi Eze, added a fourth on 45'. Soon after, Kylian Mbappé, set up by Michael Olise, pulled one back, making it 1-4 on 48'. Moments later, Bradley Barcola, set up by Kylian Mbappé, pulled one back, making it 2-4 on 54'. Then Kylian Mbappé, set up by Michael Olise, pulled one back for France on 66'. Later, Bukayo Saka made it 3-5 on 87'. Soon after, Ousmane Dembélé, set up by Dayot Upamecano, pulled one back for France on 90'. Moments later, Jude Bellingham made it 4-6 on 90'.
England controlled the ball with 54% possession and 19 shots to France's 19. An expected-goals figure of 2.87 to 2.58 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made France the 37% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read France 37%, Draw 30%, England 32%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
France FT 4 - 6
England
xG 2.87 vs 2.58
19
Total shots
19 9
Shots on goal
11 46%
Possession
54% 3
Corners
4 14
Fouls
8 91%
Pass accuracy
91% 4
Saves
5 6
Shots outside box
2 4
Blocked shots
6 12
Shots inside box
16 7
Shots outside box
3 3
Offsides
3 445
Total passes
515 0
Yellow cards
0 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
England beat France 6-4 in their World Cup 2026 Third place clash. The ten goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought ten substitutions.
France 4 - 6 FT
England
10 Goals
0 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
10 Substitutions
10 Key Moments
3' Declan Rice GOAL
Declan Rice GOAL 18' Ezri Konsa Assist: Declan Rice GOAL
Ezri Konsa Assist: Declan Rice GOAL 37' Bukayo Saka Assist: Marcus Rashford GOAL
Bukayo Saka Assist: Marcus Rashford GOAL 45' Bukayo Saka Assist: Eberechi Eze GOAL
Bukayo Saka Assist: Eberechi Eze GOAL 46' Désiré Doué for Bradley Barcola SUB
Désiré Doué for Bradley Barcola SUB 46' Rayan Cherki for Ousmane Dembélé SUB
Rayan Cherki for Ousmane Dembélé SUB 46' Ibrahima Konaté for Dayot Upamecano SUB
Ibrahima Konaté for Dayot Upamecano SUB 46' Théo Hernandez for Lucas Digne SUB
Théo Hernandez for Lucas Digne SUB 46' Marcus Rashford for Ollie Watkins SUB
Marcus Rashford for Ollie Watkins SUB 48' Kylian Mbappé Assist: Michael Olise GOAL
Kylian Mbappé Assist: Michael Olise GOAL 54' Bradley Barcola Assist: Kylian Mbappé GOAL
Bradley Barcola Assist: Kylian Mbappé GOAL 66' Kylian Mbappé Assist: Michael Olise GOAL
Kylian Mbappé Assist: Michael Olise GOAL 79' Eberechi Eze for Jude Bellingham SUB
Eberechi Eze for Jude Bellingham SUB 79' Ivan Toney for Elliot Anderson SUB
Ivan Toney for Elliot Anderson SUB 83' Jarell Quansah for Reece James SUB
Jarell Quansah for Reece James SUB 87' Bukayo Saka GOAL
Bukayo Saka GOAL 90' Ousmane Dembélé Assist: Dayot Upamecano GOAL
Ousmane Dembélé Assist: Dayot Upamecano GOAL 90' Jude Bellingham GOAL
Jude Bellingham GOAL 90' Malo Gusto for Jules Koundé SUB
Malo Gusto for Jules Koundé SUB 90' Marc Guéhi for Trevoh Chalobah SUB
Marc Guéhi for Trevoh Chalobah SUB Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for France vs England in this World Cup 2026 Third place clash. France set up in a 4-2-3-1 and England in a 4-1-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Declan Rice, Ezri Konsa, and Bukayo Saka scored from the starting XI.
France vs England France 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
16 Mike Maignan 7.0 GK
Defence
15 Ibrahima Konaté 6.7 CB
19 Théo Hernandez 6.5 LB
26 Maxence Lacroix 6.6 CB
2 Malo Gusto 6.6 RB
Midfield
14 Adrien Rabiot 7.0 CM
24 Rayan Cherki 6.8 AM
20 Désiré Doué 7.0 LM
18 Warren Zaïre-Emery CM
Attack
10 Kylian Mbappé 2 8.3 CF
11 Michael Olise 7.2 RW
46' Bradley Barcola for Désiré Doué
46' Ousmane Dembélé for Rayan Cherki
46' Dayot Upamecano for Ibrahima Konaté
46' Lucas Digne for Théo Hernandez
90' Jules Koundé for Malo Gusto
England 4-1-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
13 Dean Henderson GK
Defence
2 Ezri Konsa 7.4 CB
6 Marc Guéhi 7.4 CB
24 Djed Spence 7.5 RB
26 Jarell Quansah CB
Midfield
4 Declan Rice 7.1 CM
21 Eberechi Eze 6.9 AM
Attack
22 Ivan Toney CF
11 Marcus Rashford 6.5 LW
7 Bukayo Saka 3 7.0 RW
17 Morgan Rogers 6.5 LW
46' Ollie Watkins for Marcus Rashford
79' Jude Bellingham for Eberechi Eze
79' Elliot Anderson for Ivan Toney
83' Reece James for Jarell Quansah
90' Trevoh Chalobah for Marc Guéhi
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
England's Outlook
Last time out: won vs France (6-4).
- Harry Kane (Forward, 33) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- John Stones (Defender, 32) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.63 goals here.
- BTTS at 53% and Over 2.5 at 49% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The France win line (37%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
37.5% Favourite
Win Probability
32.5%
97.2%
Advance to Knockout
97%
35.3%
Reach the Semis
31.3%
21.8%
Reach the Final
19.4%
13.59%
Champion Chance
11.17%
1.87
xG per Match
1.90
Insight: Our model gives France the edge, fractionally ahead on four of six measures: a higher win probability, a clearer path to the semis and stronger odds of reaching the final.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
France
England
Recent Form & Head to Head
France and England have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did France vs England end?
France 4-6 England (FT) in the Third place stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Miami Gardens, FL. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get France vs England right?
No. Our structural model made France the pick at 37% (37/30/32), but it finished england win (4-6). The model missed this one, and we'd rather say so than dress it up.
When and where was France vs England played?
Saturday, July 18, 2026, Miami Gardens, FL. Third place stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 37/30/32 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between France and England?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between France and England in our dataset.