France's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs England (4-6).
- Kylian Mbappé (Forward, 28) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- N'Golo Kanté (Midfielder, 35) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
France 2-0 Morocco (FT). Quarter-final, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was France at 51% — it called it.
France vs Morocco Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
France2-0Morocco (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Quarter-final tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
France97%Advance
35%Semi
22%Final
14%Champion
Morocco89%Advance
11%Semi
5%Final
2%Champion
Our model called it
We made France our pick at 51%, and that's how it finished (2-0). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
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France Morocco
Full-time Score
Model called it
2 FT 0
France Morocco
Model pick: France at 51%. Called it. Full breakdown
FT · model called it Match stats
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
France beat Morocco 2-0 in Quarter-final at World Cup 2026, Matchday 0. Kylian Mbappé, set up by Désiré Doué, opened the scoring on 60'. Moments later, Ousmane Dembélé, set up by Kylian Mbappé, doubled the lead on 66'.
Morocco controlled the ball with 52% possession and 5 shots to France's 22. An expected-goals figure of 3.04 to 0.14 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. France generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made France the 51% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was France 51%, Draw 28%, Morocco 21%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
France FT 2 - 0
Morocco
xG 3.04 vs 0.14
22
Total shots
5 8
Shots on goal
1 48%
Possession
52% 5
Corners
5 10
Fouls
13 89%
Pass accuracy
86% 1
Saves
6 9
Shots outside box
3 5
Blocked shots
1 12
Shots inside box
1 10
Shots outside box
4 0
Offsides
0 485
Total passes
524 0
Yellow cards
1 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
France beat Morocco 2-0 in their World Cup 2026 Quarter-final clash. All two goals arrived after the restart, in a second half that also brought a booking and nine substitutions.
France 2 - 0 FT
Morocco
2 Goals
1 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
9 Substitutions
3 Key Moments
28' Kylian Mbappé Goal
Kylian Mbappé Goal 60' Kylian Mbappé Assist: Désiré Doué GOAL
Kylian Mbappé Assist: Désiré Doué GOAL 62' Bilal El Khannouss for Soufiane Rahimi SUB
Bilal El Khannouss for Soufiane Rahimi SUB 62' Ayyoub Bouaddi for Sofyan Amrabat SUB
Ayyoub Bouaddi for Sofyan Amrabat SUB 63' Issa Diop YELLOW
Issa Diop YELLOW 66' Ousmane Dembélé Assist: Kylian Mbappé GOAL
Ousmane Dembélé Assist: Kylian Mbappé GOAL 70' Manu Koné for Warren Zaïre-Emery SUB
Manu Koné for Warren Zaïre-Emery SUB 74' Anass Salah-Eddine for Zakaria El Ouahdi SUB
Anass Salah-Eddine for Zakaria El Ouahdi SUB 74' Brahim Díaz for Gessime Yassine SUB
Brahim Díaz for Gessime Yassine SUB 77' Désiré Doué for Bradley Barcola SUB
Désiré Doué for Bradley Barcola SUB 77' Kylian Mbappé for Jean-Philippe Mateta SUB
Kylian Mbappé for Jean-Philippe Mateta SUB 85' Chemsdine Talbi for Amine Sbaï SUB
Chemsdine Talbi for Amine Sbaï SUB 87' Jules Koundé for Malo Gusto SUB
Jules Koundé for Malo Gusto SUB Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for France vs Morocco in this World Cup 2026 Quarter-final clash. France set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Morocco in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé scored from the starting XI.
France vs Morocco France 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
16 Mike Maignan 7.0 GK
Defence
3 Lucas Digne 6.8 LB
4 Dayot Upamecano 7.5 CB
5 Jules Koundé 6.8 CB
17 William Saliba 7.1 CB
Midfield
14 Adrien Rabiot 7.0 CM
6 Manu Koné 7.0 CM
20 Désiré Doué 7.0 LM
Attack
7 Ousmane Dembélé 9.3 RW
10 Kylian Mbappé 8.3 CF
11 Michael Olise 7.2 RW
70' Warren Zaïre-Emery for Manu Koné
77' Bradley Barcola for Désiré Doué
77' Jean-Philippe Mateta for Kylian Mbappé
87' Malo Gusto for Jules Koundé
Morocco 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Bono 5.7 GK
Defence
2 Achraf Hakimi 7.7 RB
14 Issa Diop CB
3 Noussair Mazraoui 6.7 RB
26 Anass Salah-Eddine 6.3 LB
Midfield
8 Azzedine Ounahi 6.7 CM
23 Bilal El Khannouss 8.9 M
24 Neil El Aynaoui 6.6 CM
6 Ayyoub Bouaddi CM
Attack
10 Brahim Díaz 6.4 RW
7 Chemsdine Talbi RW
62' Soufiane Rahimi for Bilal El Khannouss
62' Sofyan Amrabat for Ayyoub Bouaddi
74' Zakaria El Ouahdi for Anass Salah-Eddine
74' Gessime Yassine for Brahim Díaz
85' Amine Sbaï for Chemsdine Talbi
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Morocco's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs France (0-2).
- Achraf Hakimi (Defender, 28) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- Yassine Bounou (Goalkeeper, 35) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.63 goals here.
- BTTS at 50% and Over 2.5 at 49% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The France win line (51%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
50.5% Favourite
Win Probability
21.1%
97.2%
Advance to Knockout
88.6%
35.3%
Reach the Semis
11.4%
21.8%
Reach the Final
5.4%
13.59%
Champion Chance
2.26%
1.87
xG per Match
Stronger attack 1.93
Insight: Our model gives France the edge, fractionally ahead on five of six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
France
Morocco
Recent Form & Head to Head
France and Morocco have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did France vs Morocco end?
France 2-0 Morocco (FT) in the Quarter-final stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Foxborough, MA. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get France vs Morocco right?
Yes. Our structural model made France the pick at 51% (51/28/21), and the match finished france win (2-0). The model called it.
When and where was France vs Morocco played?
Thursday, July 9, 2026, Foxborough, MA. Quarter-final stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 51/28/21 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between France and Morocco?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between France and Morocco in our dataset.