Jordan 1-2 Algeria (FT). Group J, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Algeria at 55% — it called it.
Jordan1-2Algeria (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group J tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Jordan
AlgeriaWe made Algeria our pick at 55%, and that's how it finished (1-2). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Jordan Algeria Algeria edged past Jordan 2-1 in Group J at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Nizar Al-Rashdan, set up by Musa Al-Taamari, opened the scoring on 36'. Later, Nadhir Benbouali, set up by Riyad Mahrez, levelled it at 1-1 on 69'. Amine Gouiri edged Algeria in front on 82'.
Algeria controlled the ball with 72% possession and 17 shots to Jordan's 8. An expected-goals figure of 0.65 to 1.81 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Algeria generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Algeria the 55% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Jordan 16%, Draw 29%, Algeria 55%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Jordan Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Algeria came from behind to beat Jordan 2-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group J clash. The three goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought two bookings and ten substitutions.
Jordan Nizar Al-Rashdan Assist: Musa Al-Taamari GOAL Ramiz Zerrouki YELLOW Ramiz Zerrouki for Nabil Bentaleb SUB Hicham Boudaoui for Nadhir Benbouali SUB Husam Abu Dahab YELLOW Nadhir Benbouali Assist: Riyad Mahrez GOAL Riyad Mahrez for Anis Hadj Moussa SUB Mahmoud Al-Mardi for Odeh Al-Fakhouri SUB Amine Gouiri GOAL Musa Al-Taamari for Ali Azaizeh SUB Mohannad Abu Taha for Mohammad Abu Hashish SUB Rayan Aït-Nouri for Jaouen Hadjam SUB Amine Gouiri for Zinéddine Belaïd SUB Husam Abu Dahab for Saleem Obaid SUB Ali Olwan for Mohammad Abu Zrayq SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Jordan vs Algeria in this World Cup 2026 Group J clash. Jordan set up in a 3-4-2-1 and Algeria in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Nizar Al-Rashdan and Amine Gouiri scored from the starting XI.
Jordan vs Algeria Jordan 3-4-2-1 Confirmed XI 
Algeria 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Jordan's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Argentina (1-3). Live-form lens has them at 28%, a 12pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Algeria's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Switzerland (0-2). Live-form lens: 44% (11pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.35 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Algeria the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Jordan Algeria3 meetings on record between Jordan and Algeria.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Jordan 1-2 Algeria |
| 2004 | Algeria 1-1 Jordan |
| 1974 | Algeria 6-0 Jordan |
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