Netherlands 2-2 Japan (FT). Group F, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Netherlands at 42% — it missed.
Netherlands2-2Japan (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group F tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Netherlands
JapanWe made Netherlands our pick at 42%; it finished 2-2 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Netherlands Japan Netherlands and Japan shared a 2-2 draw in Group F at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Virgil van Dijk, set up by Ryan Gravenberch, opened the scoring on 51'. Moments later, Keito Nakamura, set up by Takefusa Kubo, levelled it at 1-1 on 57'. Soon after, Crysencio Summerville, set up by Ryan Gravenberch, restored Netherlands' lead on 64'. Then Daichi Kamada, set up by Kōki Ogawa, levelled it at 2-2 on 89'.
Netherlands controlled the ball with 60% possession and 10 shots to Japan's 10. An expected-goals figure of 0.79 to 0.54 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Netherlands the 42% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Netherlands 42%, Draw 30%, Japan 27%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Netherlands Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Netherlands and Japan drew 2-2 in their World Cup 2026 Group F clash. All four goals arrived after the restart, in a second half that also brought three bookings and ten substitutions.
Netherlands Virgil van Dijk Assist: Ryan Gravenberch GOAL Keito Nakamura Assist: Takefusa Kubo GOAL Crysencio Summerville YELLOW Crysencio Summerville Assist: Ryan Gravenberch GOAL Daizen Maeda for Junya Itō SUB Donyell Malen for Memphis Depay SUB Crysencio Summerville for Teun Koopmeiners SUB Tijjani Reijnders for Quinten Timber SUB Tsuyoshi Watanabe for Takehiro Tomiyasu SUB Takefusa Kubo for Kōki Ogawa SUB Ritsu Dōan for Yukinari Sugawara SUB Ryan Gravenberch for Nathan Aké SUB Memphis Depay YELLOW Ayase Ueda for Kento Shiogai SUB Cody Gakpo for Brian Brobbey SUB Daichi Kamada Assist: Kōki Ogawa GOAL Micky van de Ven YELLOW Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Netherlands vs Japan in this World Cup 2026 Group F clash. Netherlands set up in a 4-3-3 and Japan in a 3-4-2-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Virgil van Dijk, Keito Nakamura, and Crysencio Summerville scored from the starting XI.
Netherlands vs Japan Netherlands 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Japan 3-4-2-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Netherlands's OutlookTheir last outing: a draw vs Morocco (1-1). Live-form lens has them at 43%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Japan's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Brazil (1-2). Live-form lens: 28%.
The model expects roughly 2.49 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Netherlands the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Netherlands Japan4 meetings on record between Netherlands and Japan.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Netherlands 2-2 Japan |
| 2013 | Netherlands 2-2 Japan |
| 2010 | Netherlands 1-0 Japan |
| 2009 | Netherlands 3-0 Japan |
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