Summary

Norway 1-4 France (FT). Group I, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was France at 58% — it called it.

Norway vs France Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

Norway1-4France (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group I tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

Norway

74%Advance

6%Semi

2%Final

1%Champion

France

97%Advance

35%Semi

22%Final

14%Champion

Our model called it

We made France our pick at 58%, and that's how it finished (1-4). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: France 58% Structural: 16/26/58 Actual: France win (1-4)

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Final Result FT

Fri, Jun 26 · Foxborough · Match 3 · Group I

Norway

France

Full-time Score Model called it

1 FT 4

Norway France

Model pick: France at 58%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

WarmFoxborough conditions

273.9 / 408.1 kmTravel, NOR / FRA

4 days eachRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

40 mFoxborough elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

France beat Norway 4-1 in Group I at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Ousmane Dembélé, set up by Kylian Mbappé, opened the scoring on 7'. Later, Ousmane Dembélé, set up by Kylian Mbappé, doubled the lead on 20'. Soon after, Thelo Aasgaard, set up by Andreas Schjelderup, pulled one back for Norway on 21'. Then Ousmane Dembélé, set up by Aurélien Tchouaméni, added a third on 32'. Later, Désiré Doué, set up by Bradley Barcola, added a fourth on 90'.

France controlled the ball with 57% possession and 17 shots to Norway's 10. An expected-goals figure of 1.69 to 1.18 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.

Our structural model had made France the 58% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Norway 16%, Draw 26%, France 58%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

Norway

FT 1 - 4

France

xG 1.69 vs 1.18

Total shots

Shots on goal

43%

Possession

57%

Corners

Fouls

82%

Pass accuracy

86%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

409

Total passes

545

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

France beat Norway 4-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group I clash. The five goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought two bookings and ten substitutions.

Norway

1 - 4 FT

France

5 Goals

2 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

10 Substitutions

7 Key Moments

Ousmane Dembélé Assist: Kylian Mbappé GOAL

10'

Patrick Berg YELLOW

20'

Ousmane Dembélé Assist: Kylian Mbappé GOAL

21'

Thelo Aasgaard Assist: Andreas Schjelderup GOAL

32'

Ousmane Dembélé Assist: Aurélien Tchouaméni GOAL

46'

Fredrik Bjørkan for Marcus Pedersen SUB

46'

Kristian Thorstvedt for Morten Thorsby SUB

50'

Jørgen Strand Larsen Goal

65'

Michael Olise for Rayan Cherki SUB

65'

Ousmane Dembélé for Bradley Barcola SUB

66'

Henrik Falchener for Sondre Langås SUB

74'

Aurélien Tchouaméni YELLOW

76'

Dayot Upamecano for Ibrahima Konaté SUB

83'

Oscar Bobb for Antonio Nusa SUB

83'

Andreas Schjelderup for Jens Petter Hauge SUB

87'

Jules Koundé for Malo Gusto SUB

87'

Kylian Mbappé for Jean-Philippe Mateta SUB

90'

Désiré Doué Assist: Bradley Barcola GOAL

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Norway vs France in this World Cup 2026 Group I clash. Norway set up in a 4-3-3 and France in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Ousmane Dembélé, Thelo Aasgaard, and Désiré Doué scored from the starting XI.

Norway vs France

Norway 4-3-3 Confirmed XI

Patrick Berg Key player · 6.6

Leo Østigård Key player · 6.6

Kristian Thorstvedt Key player · 6.5

Goalkeeper

13 Egil Selvik 6.8 GK

Defence

4 Leo Østigård 6.6 CB

15 Fredrik Bjørkan 6.0 LB

25 Henrik Falchener 5.6 CB

Midfield

6 Patrick Berg 6.6 DM

14 Fredrik Aursnes 6.6 CM

18 Kristian Thorstvedt 6.5 CM

19 Thelo Aasgaard 7.9 AM

Attack

11 Jørgen Strand Larsen 5.8 CF

21 Andreas Schjelderup 6.9 CF

22 Oscar Bobb 6.9 RW

46' Marcus Pedersen for Fredrik Bjørkan

46' Morten Thorsby for Kristian Thorstvedt

66' Sondre Langås for Henrik Falchener

83' Antonio Nusa for Oscar Bobb

83' Jens Petter Hauge for Andreas Schjelderup

France 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI

Kylian Mbappé Key player · 8.3

Ousmane Dembélé Key player · 9.3

Jules Koundé Key player · 6.8

Goalkeeper

16 Mike Maignan 7.0 GK

Defence

4 Dayot Upamecano 7.5 CB

5 Jules Koundé 6.8 CB

19 Théo Hernandez 6.5 LB

26 Maxence Lacroix 6.6 CB

Midfield

8 Aurélien Tchouaméni 7.8 DM

6 Manu Koné 7.0 CM

20 Désiré Doué 7.0 LM

Attack

7 Ousmane Dembélé 3 9.3 RW

10 Kylian Mbappé 8.3 CF

11 Michael Olise 7.2 RW

65' Rayan Cherki for Michael Olise

65' Bradley Barcola for Ousmane Dembélé

76' Ibrahima Konaté for Dayot Upamecano

87' Malo Gusto for Jules Koundé

87' Jean-Philippe Mateta for Kylian Mbappé

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

Norway's Outlook

Their last outing: a loss vs England (1-2). Live-form lens has them at 26%, a 10pp split from the structural read worth noting.

Alexander Sørloth (Forward, 31) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Ørjan Nyland (Goalkeeper, 36) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

France's Outlook

Last time out: lost vs England (4-6). Live-form lens: 49% (9pp divergence from structural).

Kylian Mbappé (Forward, 28) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
N'Golo Kanté (Midfielder, 35) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.71 goals here.

BTTS at 48% and Over 2.5 at 51% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The France win line (58%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

Norway UEFA

Group I, 2nd

UEFA France

Group I, 1st

16.1%

Win Probability

Favourite 57.9%

74.1%

Advance to Knockout

97.2%

6.2%

Reach the Semis

35.3%

2.4%

Reach the Final

21.8%

0.81%

Champion Chance

13.59%

2.10 Stronger attack

xG per Match

1.87

Insight: Our model gives France the edge, fractionally ahead on five of six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group I standings & all matches

Group I: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

Norway

Alexander Sørloth C

Forward · 31 · Atlético De Madrid (ESP)

73Caps

26Goals

ØN

Ørjan Nyland

Goalkeeper · 36 · Sevilla FC (ESP)

72Caps

0Goals

MØ

Martin Ødegaard

Midfielder · 28 · Arsenal FC (ENG)

69Caps

5Goals

Sander Berge

Midfielder · 28 · Fulham FC (ENG)

67Caps

1Goals

France

Kylian Mbappé C

Forward · 28 · Real Madrid C. F. (ESP)

99Caps

58Goals

N'Golo Kanté

Midfielder · 35 · Fenerbahçe SK (TUR)

69Caps

2Goals

Ousmane Dembélé

Forward · 29 · Paris Saint-Germain (FRA)

60Caps

7Goals

Adrien Rabiot

Midfielder · 31 · AC Milan (ITA)

60Caps

7Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

L1-2

vs England

W2-1

vs Brazil

W2-1

vs Ivory Coast

L1-4

vs France

W3-2

vs Senegal

View match analysis

L4-6

vs England

L0-2

vs Spain

W2-0

vs Morocco

W1-0

vs Paraguay

W3-0

vs Sweden

View match analysis

17 meetings on record between Norway and France.

Year	Score
2026	Norway 1-4 France
2014	France 4-0 Norway
2010	Norway 2-1 France
1998	France 3-3 Norway
1995	Norway 0-0 France

View match analysis

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Norway vs France end?

Norway 1-4 France (FT) in the Group I stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Foxborough. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get Norway vs France right?

Yes. Our structural model made France the pick at 58% (16/26/58), and the match finished france win (1-4). The model called it.

When and where was Norway vs France played?

Friday, June 26, 2026, Foxborough. Group I stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 16/26/58 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between Norway and France?

Before this match, Norway and France had met 17 times: 5 Norway wins, 8 France wins, 4 draws.