Paraguay's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs France (0-1).
- Gustavo Gómez (Defender, 33) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Miguel Almirón (Midfielder, 32) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
Paraguay 0-1 France (FT). Round of 16, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was France at 67% — it called it.
Paraguay vs France Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
Paraguay0-1France (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 16 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
Paraguay46%Advance
2%Semi
0%Final
0%Champion
France97%Advance
35%Semi
22%Final
14%Champion
Our model called it
We made France our pick at 67%, and that's how it finished (0-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Final Result FT
Paraguay France
Full-time Score
Model called it
0 FT 1
Paraguay France
Model pick: France at 67%. Called it. Full breakdown
FT · model called it Match stats
What the model weighs
Warm HumidPhiladelphia, PA conditions
Neutral venueNeither side at home
12 mPhiladelphia, PA elevation
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
France edged past Paraguay 1-0 in Round of 16 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 16. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring on 70'.
France controlled the ball with 76% possession and 15 shots to Paraguay's 5. An expected-goals figure of 0.13 to 1.45 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. France generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made France the 67% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Paraguay 10%, Draw 22%, France 67%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
Paraguay FT 0 - 1
France
xG 0.13 vs 1.45
5
Total shots
15 1
Shots on goal
5 24%
Possession
76% 2
Corners
12 13
Fouls
11 54%
Pass accuracy
90% 4
Saves
1 4
Shots outside box
6 1
Blocked shots
4 1
Shots inside box
5 4
Shots outside box
10 0
Offsides
0 183
Total passes
569 0
Yellow cards
3 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
France beat Paraguay 1-0 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 16 clash. The only goal arrived after the restart, in a second half that also brought a disallowed effort, three bookings, and six substitutions.
Paraguay 0 - 1 FT
France
1 Goals
3 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
6 Substitutions
4 Key Moments
19' Bradley Barcola YELLOW
Bradley Barcola YELLOW 58' Omar Alderete for José Canale SUB
Omar Alderete for José Canale SUB 61' Julio Enciso for Gustavo Caballero SUB
Julio Enciso for Gustavo Caballero SUB 61' Bradley Barcola for Désiré Doué SUB
Bradley Barcola for Désiré Doué SUB 67' Désiré Doué Penalty confirmed VAR
Désiré Doué Penalty confirmed VAR 70' Kylian Mbappé GOAL
Kylian Mbappé GOAL 71' Miguel Almirón for Gabriel Ávalos SUB
Miguel Almirón for Gabriel Ávalos SUB 71' Gustavo Gómez for Maurício SUB
Gustavo Gómez for Maurício SUB 81' Manu Koné YELLOW
Manu Koné YELLOW 84' Ousmane Dembélé for Rayan Cherki SUB
Ousmane Dembélé for Rayan Cherki SUB 90' Michael Olise YELLOW
Michael Olise YELLOW Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Paraguay vs France in this World Cup 2026 Round of 16 clash. Paraguay set up in a 5-4-1 and France in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Kylian Mbappé scored from the starting XI.
Paraguay vs France Paraguay 5-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
12 Orlando Gill 7.8 GK
Defence
15 Gustavo Gómez 7.2 CB
3 Omar Alderete 7.0 CB
6 Júnior Alonso 7.3 CB
4 Juan José Cáceres 7.5 RB
2 Gustavo Velázquez 7.1 CB
Midfield
14 Andrés Cubas 7.1 DM
19 Julio Enciso 6.7 AM
8 Diego Gómez 6.6 CM
23 Matías Galarza 7.5 CM
Attack
10 Miguel Almirón 5.9 RW
58' José Canale for Omar Alderete
61' Gustavo Caballero for Julio Enciso
71' Gabriel Ávalos for Miguel Almirón
71' Maurício for Gustavo Gómez
France 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
16 Mike Maignan 7.0 GK
Defence
3 Lucas Digne 6.8 LB
4 Dayot Upamecano 7.5 CB
5 Jules Koundé 6.8 CB
17 William Saliba 7.1 CB
Midfield
14 Adrien Rabiot 7.0 CM
6 Manu Koné 7.0 CM
Attack
7 Ousmane Dembélé 9.3 RW
10 Kylian Mbappé 8.3 CF
11 Michael Olise 7.2 RW
12 Bradley Barcola 6.9 LW
61' Désiré Doué for Bradley Barcola
84' Rayan Cherki for Ousmane Dembélé
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
The structural model rates Paraguay the value side here at a +5% gap to the market. The caveat is real, our live-form lens leans the other way, which is why confidence sits at High. Here is the honest case on both sides.
France's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs England (4-6).
- Kylian Mbappé (Forward, 28) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- N'Golo Kanté (Midfielder, 35) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.84 goals here.
- BTTS at 43% and Over 2.5 at 54% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The France win line (67%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
The +5% structural edge on Paraguay is the headline. The fair-odds table makes it concrete.
- The live-form lens is the caveat, which is why confidence is High.
- The structural edge is the bigger, slower signal worth weighing.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
10.4%
Win Probability
Favourite 67.3%
46.4%
Advance to Knockout
97.2%
1.7%
Reach the Semis
35.3%
0.4%
Reach the Final
21.8%
0.15%
Champion Chance
13.59%
0.33
xG per Match
Stronger attack 1.87
Insight: Our model gives France the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Paraguay
France
Recent Form & Head to Head
Paraguay and France have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did Paraguay vs France end?
Paraguay 0-1 France (FT) in the Round of 16 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Philadelphia, PA. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get Paraguay vs France right?
Yes. Our structural model made France the pick at 67% (10/22/67), and the match finished france win (0-1). The model called it.
When and where was Paraguay vs France played?
Saturday, July 4, 2026, Philadelphia, PA. Round of 16 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 10/22/67 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between Paraguay and France?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between Paraguay and France in our dataset.