Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay (FT). Group H, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Uruguay at 55% — it missed.
Saudi Arabia1-1Uruguay (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group H tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Saudi Arabia
UruguayWe made Uruguay our pick at 55%; it finished 1-1 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Saudi Arabia Uruguay Saudi Arabia and Uruguay shared a 1-1 draw in Group H at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Abdulelah Al-Amri opened the scoring on 41'. Later, Maximiliano Araújo levelled it at 1-1 on 80'.
Uruguay controlled the ball with 65% possession and 24 shots to Saudi Arabia's 7. An expected-goals figure of 0.99 to 1.48 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Uruguay the 55% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Saudi Arabia 16%, Draw 29%, Uruguay 55%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Saudi Arabia Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Saudi Arabia and Uruguay drew 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group H clash. The two goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a booking and ten substitutions.
Saudi Arabia Abdulelah Al-Amri GOAL Abdulelah Al-Amri YELLOW Darwin Núñez for Agustín Canobbio SUB Matías Viña for Juan Manuel Sanabria SUB Musab Al-Juwayr for Nasser Al-Dawsari SUB Manuel Ugarte for Nicolás De La Cruz SUB Maximiliano Araújo GOAL Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat for Nawaf Boushal SUB Maximiliano Araújo for Brian Rodríguez SUB Saud Abdulhamid for Ali Lajami SUB Firas Al-Buraikan SUB Moteb Al-Harbi for Abdullah Al-Hamdan SUB Federico Viñas for Rodrigo Aguirre SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay in this World Cup 2026 Group H clash. Saudi Arabia set up in a 4-4-2 and Uruguay in a 4-4-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Abdulelah Al-Amri and Maximiliano Araújo scored from the starting XI.
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Saudi Arabia 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Uruguay 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Saudi Arabia's OutlookTheir last outing: a draw vs Cape Verde (0-0). Live-form lens has them at 16%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Uruguay's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Spain (0-1). Live-form lens: 59%.
The model expects roughly 2.35 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Uruguay the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Saudi Arabia Uruguay4 meetings on record between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay |
| 2018 | Uruguay 1-0 Saudi Arabia |
| 2014 | Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay |
| 2002 | Saudi Arabia 3-2 Uruguay |
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