South Africa's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs Canada (0-1).
- Ronwen Williams (Goalkeeper, 34) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Teboho Mokoena (Midfielder, 29) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
South Africa 0-1 Canada (FT). Round of 32, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Canada at 50% — it called it.
South Africa vs Canada Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
South Africa0-1Canada (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
South Africa40%Advance
1%Semi
0%Final
0%Champion
Canada90%Advance
11%Semi
4%Final
2%Champion
Our model called it
We made Canada our pick at 50%, and that's how it finished (0-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Final Result FT
South Africa Canada
Full-time Score
Model called it
0 FT 1
South Africa Canada
Model pick: Canada at 50%. Called it. Full breakdown
FT · model called it Match stats
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
Canada edged past South Africa 1-0 in Round of 32 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 32. Stephen Eustáquio opened the scoring on 90'.
South Africa controlled the ball with 58% possession and 6 shots to Canada's 12. An expected-goals figure of 0.13 to 1.32 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Canada generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Canada the 50% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was South Africa 20%, Draw 30%, Canada 50%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
South Africa FT 0 - 1
Canada
xG 0.13 vs 1.32
6
Total shots
12 1
Shots on goal
7 58%
Possession
42% 1
Corners
4 10
Fouls
16 85%
Pass accuracy
78% 5
Saves
1 4
Shots outside box
5 1
Blocked shots
0 1
Shots inside box
9 5
Shots outside box
3 1
Offsides
0 550
Total passes
380 0
Yellow cards
2 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
Canada beat South Africa 1-0 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. The only goal arrived after the restart, in a second half that also brought two bookings and eight substitutions.
South Africa 0 - 1 FT
Canada
1 Goals
2 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
8 Substitutions
3 Key Moments
No goals, cards, or substitutions in this half.
46' Relebohile Mofokeng for Thalente Mbatha SUB
Relebohile Mofokeng for Thalente Mbatha SUB 54' Nathan Saliba YELLOW
Nathan Saliba YELLOW 59' Moïse Bombito for Luc de Fougerolles SUB
Moïse Bombito for Luc de Fougerolles SUB 59' Nathan Saliba for Niko Sigur SUB
Nathan Saliba for Niko Sigur SUB 67' Niko Sigur YELLOW
Niko Sigur YELLOW 70' Liam Millar for Jacob Shaffelburg SUB
Liam Millar for Jacob Shaffelburg SUB 70' Tani Oluwaseyi for Promise David SUB
Tani Oluwaseyi for Promise David SUB 75' Tajon Buchanan for Alphonso Davies SUB
Tajon Buchanan for Alphonso Davies SUB 86' Evidence Makgopa for Iqraam Rayners SUB
Evidence Makgopa for Iqraam Rayners SUB 86' Thapelo Maseko for Tshepang Moremi SUB
Thapelo Maseko for Tshepang Moremi SUB 90' Stephen Eustáquio GOAL
Stephen Eustáquio GOAL Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for South Africa vs Canada in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. South Africa set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Canada in a 4-4-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Stephen Eustáquio scored from the starting XI.
South Africa vs Canada South Africa 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Ronwen Williams 7.0 GK
Defence
6 Aubrey Modiba 7.3 LB
20 Khuliso Mudau 7.0 RB
21 Ime Okon 7.0 CB
14 Mbekezeli Mbokazi 7.0 CB
Midfield
13 Sphephelo Sithole 7.0 CM
4 Teboho Mokoena 8.0 CM
Attack
12 Thapelo Maseko 7.3 LW
17 Evidence Makgopa 6.6 CF
10 Relebohile Mofokeng 6.8 LW
7 Oswin Appollis 7.0 LW
46' Thalente Mbatha for Relebohile Mofokeng
86' Iqraam Rayners for Evidence Makgopa
86' Tshepang Moremi for Thapelo Maseko
Canada 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
16 Maxime Crépeau 6.6 GK
Defence
22 Richie Laryea 7.7 RB
2 Alistair Johnston 7.3 RB
13 Derek Cornelius 6.3 CB
15 Moïse Bombito 7.3 CB
Midfield
7 Stephen Eustáquio 7.4 CM
25 Nathan Saliba 7.8 CM
Attack
10 Jonathan David 7.2 CF
17 Tajon Buchanan 6.9 RW
11 Liam Millar 6.7 LW
12 Tani Oluwaseyi 6.3 CF
59' Luc de Fougerolles for Moïse Bombito
59' Niko Sigur for Nathan Saliba
70' Jacob Shaffelburg for Liam Millar
70' Promise David for Tani Oluwaseyi
75' Alphonso Davies for Tajon Buchanan
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Canada's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs Morocco (0-3).
- Jonathan Osorio (Midfielder, 34) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- Cyle Larin (Forward, 31) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.31 goals here.
- BTTS at 43% and Over 2.5 at 41% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The Canada win line (50%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
19.6%
Win Probability
Favourite 50.4%
39.8%
Advance to Knockout
90.3%
0.5%
Reach the Semis
10.6%
0.1%
Reach the Final
4.4%
0.06%
Champion Chance
1.65%
0.87
xG per Match
Stronger attack 2.47
Insight: Our model gives Canada the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
South Africa
Canada
Recent Form & Head to Head
L0-3
vs MoroccoW1-0
vs South AfricaL1-2
vs SwitzerlandW6-0
vs QatarD1-1
vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaSouth Africa and Canada have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did South Africa vs Canada end?
South Africa 0-1 Canada (FT) in the Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Inglewood, CA. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get South Africa vs Canada right?
Yes. Our structural model made Canada the pick at 50% (20/30/50), and the match finished canada win (0-1). The model called it.
When and where was South Africa vs Canada played?
Sunday, June 28, 2026, Inglewood, CA. Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 20/30/50 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between South Africa and Canada?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between South Africa and Canada in our dataset.