Spain's Outlook
Their last outing: a win vs Argentina (1-0).
- Rodri (Midfielder, 30) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Unai Simón (Goalkeeper, 29) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
Spain 2-1 Belgium (FT). Quarter-final, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Spain at 47% — it called it.
Spain vs Belgium Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
Spain2-1Belgium (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Quarter-final tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
Spain98%Advance
33%Semi
20%Final
12%Champion
Belgium95%Advance
16%Semi
8%Final
4%Champion
Our model called it
We made Spain our pick at 47%, and that's how it finished (2-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
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Spain Belgium
Full-time Score
Model called it
2 FT 1
Spain Belgium
Model pick: Spain at 47%. Called it. Full breakdown
FT · model called it Match stats
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
Spain edged past Belgium 2-1 in Quarter-final at World Cup 2026, Matchday 0. Fabián Ruiz opened the scoring on 30'. Later, Charles De Ketelaere, set up by Timothy Castagne, levelled it at 1-1 on 41'. Mikel Merino restored Spain's lead on 88'.
Spain controlled the ball with 68% possession and 16 shots to Belgium's 5. An expected-goals figure of 2.04 to 0.38 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Spain generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Spain the 47% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Spain 47%, Draw 29%, Belgium 24%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
Spain FT 2 - 1
Belgium
xG 2.04 vs 0.38
16
Total shots
5 7
Shots on goal
2 68%
Possession
32% 5
Corners
1 13
Fouls
16 90%
Pass accuracy
79% 1
Saves
5 4
Shots outside box
1 5
Blocked shots
2 10
Shots inside box
4 6
Shots outside box
1 3
Offsides
1 644
Total passes
308 2
Yellow cards
1 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
Spain beat Belgium 2-1 in their World Cup 2026 Quarter-final clash. The three goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought four bookings and nine substitutions.
Spain 2 - 1 FT
Belgium
3 Goals
4 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
9 Substitutions
7 Key Moments
30' Fabián Ruiz GOAL
Fabián Ruiz GOAL 41' Charles De Ketelaere Assist: Timothy Castagne GOAL
Charles De Ketelaere Assist: Timothy Castagne GOAL 43' Pau Cubarsí YELLOW
Pau Cubarsí YELLOW 55' Fabián Ruiz for Pedri SUB
Fabián Ruiz for Pedri SUB 55' Álex Baena for Ferran Torres SUB
Álex Baena for Ferran Torres SUB 60' Hans Vanaken for Romelu Lukaku SUB
Hans Vanaken for Romelu Lukaku SUB 60' Leandro Trossard for Axel Witsel SUB
Leandro Trossard for Axel Witsel SUB 61' Maxim De Cuyper for Joaquin Seys SUB
Maxim De Cuyper for Joaquin Seys SUB 71' Thibaut Courtois for Senne Lammens SUB
Thibaut Courtois for Senne Lammens SUB 79' Mikel Oyarzabal for Nico Williams SUB
Mikel Oyarzabal for Nico Williams SUB 85' Kevin De Bruyne YELLOW
Kevin De Bruyne YELLOW 86' Dani Olmo for Mikel Merino SUB
Dani Olmo for Mikel Merino SUB 86' Kevin De Bruyne for Alexis Saelemaekers SUB
Kevin De Bruyne for Alexis Saelemaekers SUB 88' Mikel Merino GOAL
Mikel Merino GOAL 90' Aymeric Laporte YELLOW
Aymeric Laporte YELLOW 90' Axel Witsel YELLOW
Axel Witsel YELLOW Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Spain vs Belgium in this World Cup 2026 Quarter-final clash. Spain set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Belgium in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Fabián Ruiz and Charles De Ketelaere scored from the starting XI.
Spain vs Belgium Spain 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
23 Unai Simón 7.1 GK
Defence
14 Aymeric Laporte 8.2 CB
24 Marc Cucurella 7.3 LB
12 Pedro Porro RB
22 Pau Cubarsí 7.8 CB
Midfield
16 Rodri 8.6 DM
8 Fabián Ruiz 7.1 CM
10 Dani Olmo 6.8 AM
15 Álex Baena LM
Attack
21 Mikel Oyarzabal 6.0 LW
19 Lamine Yamal 6.8 RW
55' Pedri for Fabián Ruiz
55' Ferran Torres for Álex Baena
79' Nico Williams for Mikel Oyarzabal
86' Mikel Merino for Dani Olmo
Belgium 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Thibaut Courtois 7.1 GK
Defence
4 Brandon Mechele 7.2 CB
21 Timothy Castagne 7.1 RB
5 Maxim De Cuyper 7.0 LB
25 Nathan Ngoy 7.0 CB
Midfield
20 Hans Vanaken 6.6 AM
7 Kevin De Bruyne 7.6 AM
17 Charles De Ketelaere 6.6 AM
23 Nicolas Raskin 7.3 DM
Attack
10 Leandro Trossard 8.0 LW
11 Jérémy Doku 6.7 LW
60' Romelu Lukaku for Hans Vanaken
60' Axel Witsel for Leandro Trossard
61' Joaquin Seys for Maxim De Cuyper
71' Senne Lammens for Thibaut Courtois
86' Alexis Saelemaekers for Kevin De Bruyne
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Belgium's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs Spain (1-2).
- Axel Witsel (Midfielder, 37) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- Romelu Lukaku (Forward, 33) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.64 goals here.
- BTTS at 52% and Over 2.5 at 49% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The Spain win line (47%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
46.7% Favourite
Win Probability
24.3%
98.2%
Advance to Knockout
94.6%
33.3%
Reach the Semis
16%
20.2%
Reach the Final
7.5%
12.27%
Champion Chance
3.57%
2.00
xG per Match
Stronger attack 2.27
Insight: Our model gives Spain the edge, fractionally ahead on five of six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Spain
Belgium
Recent Form & Head to Head
Spain and Belgium have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did Spain vs Belgium end?
Spain 2-1 Belgium (FT) in the Quarter-final stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Inglewood, CA. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get Spain vs Belgium right?
Yes. Our structural model made Spain the pick at 47% (47/29/24), and the match finished spain win (2-1). The model called it.
When and where was Spain vs Belgium played?
Friday, July 10, 2026, Inglewood, CA. Quarter-final stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 47/29/24 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between Spain and Belgium?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between Spain and Belgium in our dataset.