Summary

Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia (FT). Group H, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Spain at 74% — it called it.

Spain vs Saudi Arabia Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

Spain4-0Saudi Arabia (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group H tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

Spain

98%Advance

33%Semi

20%Final

12%Champion

Saudi Arabia

41%Advance

1%Semi

0%Final

0%Champion

Our model called it

We made Spain our pick at 74%, and that's how it finished (4-0). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: Spain 74% Structural: 74/19/7 Actual: Spain win (4-0)

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Final Result FT

Sun, Jun 21 · Atlanta · Match 2 · Group H

Spain

Saudi Arabia

Full-time Score Model called it

4 FT 0

Spain Saudi Arabia

Model pick: Spain at 74%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

Hot Humid IndoorAtlanta conditions

0 / 955.1 kmTravel, SPA / SAU

6 days eachRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

320 mAtlanta elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

Spain beat Saudi Arabia 4-0 in Group H at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Lamine Yamal, set up by Mikel Oyarzabal, opened the scoring on 10'. Later, Mikel Oyarzabal, set up by Aymeric Laporte, doubled the lead on 21'. Soon after, Mikel Oyarzabal, set up by Dani Olmo, added a third on 24'. Then an own goal added a fourth on 49'.

Spain controlled the ball with 66% possession and 21 shots to Saudi Arabia's 3. An expected-goals figure of 2.78 to 0.14 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Spain generated the clearer chances by some distance.

Our structural model had made Spain the 74% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Spain 74%, Draw 19%, Saudi Arabia 7%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

Spain

FT 4 - 0

Saudi Arabia

xG 2.78 vs 0.14

Total shots

Shots on goal

66%

Possession

34%

Corners

Fouls

92%

Pass accuracy

80%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

693

Total passes

365

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

Spain beat Saudi Arabia 4-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group H clash. The four goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a disallowed effort, two bookings, and ten substitutions.

Spain

4 - 0 FT

Saudi Arabia

4 Goals

2 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

10 Substitutions

6 Key Moments

10'

Lamine Yamal Assist: Mikel Oyarzabal GOAL

21'

Mikel Oyarzabal Assist: Aymeric Laporte GOAL

24'

Mikel Oyarzabal Assist: Dani Olmo GOAL

30'

Salem Al-Dawsari YELLOW

46'

Lamine Yamal for Yéremy Pino SUB

46'

Mikel Oyarzabal for Ferran Torres SUB

46'

Abdullah Al-Khaibari for Mohamed Kanno SUB

46'

Musab Al-Juwayr for Abdullah Al-Hamdan SUB

49'

Hassan Al-Tambakti GOAL

60'

Mohamed Kanno YELLOW

60'

Abdulelah Al-Amri for Alaa Al-Hejji SUB

60'

Firas Al-Buraikan for Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat SUB

61'

Dani Olmo for Mikel Merino SUB

61'

Álex Baena for Nico Williams SUB

70'

Pedri for Fabián Ruiz SUB

90'

Nasser Al-Dawsari for Khalid Al-Ghannam SUB

90'

Ferran Torres Goal Disallowed - offside VAR

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Spain vs Saudi Arabia in this World Cup 2026 Group H clash. Spain set up in a 4-1-2-3 and Saudi Arabia in a 5-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal scored from the starting XI.

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

Spain 4-1-2-3 Confirmed XI

Rodri Key player · 8.6

Unai Simón Key player · 7.1

Mikel Oyarzabal Key player · 6.0

Goalkeeper

23 Unai Simón 7.1 GK

Defence

14 Aymeric Laporte 8.2 CB

24 Marc Cucurella 7.3 LB

12 Pedro Porro RB

22 Pau Cubarsí 7.8 CB

Midfield

16 Rodri 8.6 DM

10 Dani Olmo 6.8 AM

20 Pedri 9.1 CM

15 Álex Baena LM

Attack

21 Mikel Oyarzabal 2 6.0 LW

19 Lamine Yamal 6.8 RW

46' Yéremy Pino for Lamine Yamal

46' Ferran Torres for Mikel Oyarzabal

61' Mikel Merino for Dani Olmo

61' Nico Williams for Álex Baena

70' Fabián Ruiz for Pedri

Saudi Arabia 5-4-1 Confirmed XI

Salem Al-Dawsari Key player · 6.3

Firas Al-Buraikan Key player · 6.3

Mohammed Al-Owais Key player · 7.4

Goalkeeper

21 Mohammed Al-Owais 7.4 GK

Defence

4 Abdulelah Al-Amri 7.3 CB

12 Saud Abdulhamid 7.0 RB

5 Hassan Al-Tambakti 6.9 CB

3 Ali Lajami 7.1 CB

24 Moteb Al-Harbi 6.6 LB

Midfield

7 Musab Al-Juwayr 6.7 CM

6 Nasser Al-Dawsari 7.1 CM

15 Abdullah Al-Khaibari 6.9 DM

Attack

10 Salem Al-Dawsari 6.3 LW

9 Firas Al-Buraikan 6.3 CF

46' Mohamed Kanno for Abdullah Al-Khaibari

46' Abdullah Al-Hamdan for Musab Al-Juwayr

60' Alaa Al-Hejji for Abdulelah Al-Amri

60' Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat for Firas Al-Buraikan

90' Khalid Al-Ghannam for Nasser Al-Dawsari

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

Spain's Outlook

Their last outing: a win vs Argentina (1-0). Live-form lens has them at 73%, broadly in line with the structural model.

Rodri (Midfielder, 30) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Unai Simón (Goalkeeper, 29) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Saudi Arabia's Outlook

Last time out: drew vs Cape Verde (0-0). Over 2.5 at 58% means the model expects this to stay open, which suits teams comfortable in transitions. Live-form lens: 8%.

Salem Al-Dawsari (Forward, 35) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Mohamed Kanno (Midfielder, 32) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 3.02 goals here.

BTTS at 39% and Over 2.5 at 58% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The Spain win line (74%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

Spain UEFA

Group H, 1st

AFC Saudi Arabia

Group H, 4th

73.7% Favourite

Win Probability

7.3%

98.2%

Advance to Knockout

41.3%

33.3%

Reach the Semis

0.5%

20.2%

Reach the Final

0.1%

12.27%

Champion Chance

0.04%

2.00 Stronger attack

xG per Match

0.53

Insight: Our model gives Spain the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group H standings & all matches

Group H: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

Spain

Rodri C

Midfielder · 30 · Manchester City FC (ENG)

63Caps

4Goals

Unai Simón

Goalkeeper · 29 · Athletic Club (ESP)

59Caps

0Goals

Ferran Torres

Forward · 26 · FC Barcelona (ESP)

58Caps

24Goals

Mikel Oyarzabal

Forward · 29 · Real Sociedad (ESP)

54Caps

25Goals

Saudi Arabia

Salem Al-Dawsari C

Forward · 35 · Al Hilal SC (KSA)

112Caps

27Goals

Mohamed Kanno

Midfielder · 32 · Al Hilal SC (KSA)

80Caps

8Goals

Feras Al Brikan

Forward · 26 · Al Ahli FC (KSA)

73Caps

16Goals

Mohammed Al-Owais

Goalkeeper · 35 · Al Ula Saudi FC (KSA)

66Caps

0Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

W1-0

vs Argentina

W2-0

vs France

W2-1

vs Belgium

W1-0

vs Portugal

W3-0

vs Austria

View match analysis

D0-0

vs Cape Verde

L0-4

vs Spain

D1-1

vs Uruguay

D0-0

vs Senegal

W3-0

vs Puerto Rico

View match analysis

4 meetings on record between Spain and Saudi Arabia.

Year	Score
2026	Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia
2012	Spain 5-0 Saudi Arabia
2010	Spain 3-2 Saudi Arabia
2006	Saudi Arabia 0-1 Spain

View match analysis

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Spain vs Saudi Arabia end?

Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia (FT) in the Group H stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Atlanta. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get Spain vs Saudi Arabia right?

Yes. Our structural model made Spain the pick at 74% (74/19/7), and the match finished spain win (4-0). The model called it.

When and where was Spain vs Saudi Arabia played?

Sunday, June 21, 2026, Atlanta. Group H stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 74/19/7 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between Spain and Saudi Arabia?

Before this match, Spain and Saudi Arabia had met 4 times: 4 Spain wins, 0 Saudi Arabia wins, 0 draws.