Summary

Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina (FT). Group B, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Switzerland at 53% — it called it.

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

Switzerland4-1Bosnia and Herzegovina (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group B tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

Switzerland

89%Advance

10%Semi

4%Final

2%Champion

Bosnia and Herzegovina

56%Advance

1%Semi

0%Final

0%Champion

Our model called it

We made Switzerland our pick at 53%, and that's how it finished (4-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: Switzerland 53% Structural: 53/29/18 Actual: Switzerland win (4-1)

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Final Result FT

Thu, Jun 18 · Inglewood · Match 2 · Group B

Switzerland

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Full-time Score Model called it

4 FT 1

Switzerland Bosnia and Herzegovina

Model pick: Switzerland at 53%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

Warm Dry IndoorInglewood conditions

504.6 / 3504.4 kmTravel, SWI / BOS

5 / 6 daysRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

30 mInglewood elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

Switzerland beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-1 in Group B at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Johan Manzambi opened the scoring on 74'. Later, Rubén Vargas, set up by Breel Embolo, doubled the lead on 84'. Soon after, Johan Manzambi, set up by Rubén Vargas, added a third on 90'. Moments later, Ermin Mahmić pulled one back, making it 3-1 on 90'. Soon after, Granit Xhaka added a fourth on 90'.

Switzerland controlled the ball with 62% possession and 12 shots to Bosnia and Herzegovina's 5. An expected-goals figure of 1.20 to 0.24 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.

Our structural model had made Switzerland the 53% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Switzerland 53%, Draw 29%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 18%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

Switzerland

FT 4 - 1

Bosnia and Herzegovina

xG 1.20 vs 0.24

Total shots

Shots on goal

62%

Possession

38%

Corners

Fouls

88%

Pass accuracy

81%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

581

Total passes

353

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

Switzerland beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group B clash. All five goals arrived after the restart, in a second half that also brought one red card, three bookings, and ten substitutions.

Switzerland

4 - 1 FT

Bosnia and Herzegovina

5 Goals

3 Yellow Cards

1 Red Cards

10 Substitutions

9 Key Moments

No goals, cards, or substitutions in this half.

59'

Amar Dedić YELLOW

61'

Edin Džeko YELLOW

63'

Benjamin Tahirović for Ivan Bašić SUB

64'

Edin Džeko for Esmir Bajraktarević SUB

65'

Nico Elvedi YELLOW

71'

Dan Ndoye for Johan Manzambi SUB

71'

Fabian Rieder for Rubén Vargas SUB

71'

Michel Aebischer for Djibril Sow SUB

74'

Johan Manzambi GOAL

80'

Tarik Muharemović RED

84'

Rubén Vargas Assist: Breel Embolo GOAL

86'

Ermedin Demirović for Jovo Lukić SUB

86'

Ivan Šunjić for Amir Hadžiahmetović SUB

86'

Silvan Widmer for Luca Jaquez SUB

89'

Breel Embolo for Cedric Itten SUB

90'

Johan Manzambi Assist: Rubén Vargas GOAL

90'

Kerim Alajbegović for Ermin Mahmić SUB

90'

Ermin Mahmić GOAL

90'

Granit Xhaka GOAL

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina in this World Cup 2026 Group B clash. Switzerland set up in a 4-3-1-2 and Bosnia and Herzegovina in a 4-4-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Granit Xhaka scored from the starting XI.

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Switzerland 4-3-1-2 Confirmed XI

Granit Xhaka Key player · 7.5

Ricardo Rodriguez Key player · 7.2

Remo Freuler Key player · 7.0

Goalkeeper

1 Gregor Kobel 7.4 GK

Defence

13 Ricardo Rodriguez 7.2 LB

5 Manuel Akanji 7.4 CB

3 Silvan Widmer 6.3 RB

4 Nico Elvedi 7.0 CB

Midfield

10 Granit Xhaka 7.5 DM

8 Remo Freuler 7.0 CM

20 Michel Aebischer 6.9 CM

22 Fabian Rieder 6.8 AM

Attack

7 Breel Embolo 7.4 CF

11 Dan Ndoye 6.5 RW

71' Johan Manzambi for Dan Ndoye

71' Rubén Vargas for Fabian Rieder

71' Djibril Sow for Michel Aebischer

86' Luca Jaquez for Silvan Widmer

89' Cedric Itten for Breel Embolo

Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-4-2 Confirmed XI

Edin Džeko Key player · 6.6

Sead Kolašinac Key player · 6.8

Ermedin Demirović Key player · 6.4

Goalkeeper

1 Nikola Vasilj 6.2 GK

Defence

7 Amar Dedić 6.3 RB

4 Tarik Muharemović 7.0 CB

Midfield

5 Sead Kolašinac 6.8 D

18 Nikola Katić 7.1 D

14 Ivan Šunjić 6.5 DM

6 Benjamin Tahirović 6.5 DM

15 Amar Memić 6.4 RM

Attack

11 Edin Džeko 6.6 CF

10 Ermedin Demirović 6.4 F

19 Kerim Alajbegović 6.9 F

63' Ivan Bašić for Benjamin Tahirović

64' Esmir Bajraktarević for Edin Džeko

86' Jovo Lukić for Ermedin Demirović

86' Amir Hadžiahmetović for Ivan Šunjić

90' Ermin Mahmić for Kerim Alajbegović

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

Switzerland's Outlook

Their last outing: a loss vs Argentina (1-3). Live-form lens has them at 68%, a 15pp split from the structural read worth noting.

Granit Xhaka (Midfielder, 34) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Ricardo Rodriguez (Defender, 34) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Bosnia and Herzegovina's Outlook

Last time out: lost vs United States (0-2). Live-form lens: 11% (7pp divergence from structural).

Edin Džeko (Forward, 40) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Sead Kolašinac (Defender, 33) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.43 goals here.

BTTS at 44% and Over 2.5 at 44% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The Switzerland win line (53%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

Switzerland UEFA

Group B, 1st

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group B, 3rd

52.9% Favourite

Win Probability

18.4%

88.9%

Advance to Knockout

55.6%

9.7%

Reach the Semis

1.4%

3.9%

Reach the Final

0.4%

1.52%

Champion Chance

0.06%

2.13 Stronger attack

xG per Match

0.60

Insight: Our model gives Switzerland the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group B standings & all matches

Group B: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

Switzerland

Granit Xhaka C

Midfielder · 34 · Sunderland AFC (ENG)

147Caps

17Goals

Ricardo Rodriguez

Defender · 34 · Real Betis (ESP)

139Caps

9Goals

Remo Freuler

Midfielder · 34 · Bologna FC (ITA)

89Caps

11Goals

Breel Embolo

Forward · 29 · Stade Rennais FC (FRA)

87Caps

25Goals

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Edin Džeko C

Forward · 40 · FC Schalke 04 (GER)

148Caps

73Goals

Sead Kolašinac

Defender · 33 · Atalanta Bergamo (ITA)

66Caps

0Goals

Ermedin Demirović

Forward · 28 · VfB Stuttgart (GER)

41Caps

4Goals

Amir Hadžiahmetović

Midfielder · 29 · Hull City FC (ENG)

36Caps

0Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

L1-3

vs Argentina

D0-0

vs Colombia

W2-0

vs Algeria

W2-1

vs Canada

W4-1

vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

View match analysis

L0-2

vs United States

W3-1

vs Qatar

L1-4

vs Switzerland

D1-1

vs Canada

D1-1

vs Panama

View match analysis

2 meetings on record between Switzerland and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Year	Score
2026	Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
2016	Switzerland 0-2 Bosnia and Herzegovina

View match analysis

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina end?

Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina (FT) in the Group B stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Inglewood. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina right?

Yes. Our structural model made Switzerland the pick at 53% (53/29/18), and the match finished switzerland win (4-1). The model called it.

When and where was Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina played?

Thursday, June 18, 2026, Inglewood. Group B stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 53/29/18 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between Switzerland and Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Before this match, Switzerland and Bosnia and Herzegovina had met 2 times: 1 Switzerland win, 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina win, 0 draws.