Edson Álvarez brings 100 caps and 7 international goals for Mexico at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, lining up as a defender. At club level they play for Fenerbahçe SK (TUR). That record is the base the model weighs alongside current form and the strength of the group.
The model rates Álvarez's anytime-goalscoring probability at 1.7% at this tournament — a long shot read. That comes from an expected 0.04 goal contributions (xG + xA) over the projected minutes. Like every probability on the site, it is a long-run likelihood, not a guarantee that a goal arrives in any one match.
