Mikel Merino brings 44 caps and 10 international goals for Spain at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, lining up as a midfielder. At club level they play for Arsenal FC (ENG). That record is the base the model weighs alongside current form and the strength of the group.
The model rates Merino's anytime-goalscoring probability at 9.6% at this tournament — a long shot read. That comes from an expected 0.12 goal contributions (xG + xA) over the projected minutes. Like every probability on the site, it is a long-run likelihood, not a guarantee that a goal arrives in any one match.
