Summary

Rafael Leão (Portugal), Forward, 45 caps, 5 international goals, model: 6.4% to score anytime at WC 2026

Odds insightEstablished player

Rafael Leão

#10 Forward AC Milan (ITA) Portugal

Rafael Leão is a 27-year-old forward for AC Milan (ITA) and Portugal. He has earned 45 caps and 5 international goals for Portugal. Our model puts Portugal's title chance at 5% with a 93% shot at clearing the group stage at World Cup 2026.

45 Caps

5 Goals

9 Season goals

3 Assists

7.05 Form rating

Age27Height188cm / 6'2"Weight179 lbsMarket value€66.5M

View next match prediction See Portugal team page

Betting Relevance

Anytime scorer angle Moderate

High shots volume High

Tournament form Steady

100% Independent Model-driven probabilities No manufactured edges

Rafael Leão · the model’s read

Rafael Leão brings 45 caps and 5 international goals for Portugal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, lining up as a forward. At club level they play for AC Milan (ITA). That record is the base the model weighs alongside current form and the strength of the group.

The model rates Leão's anytime-goalscoring probability at 6.4% at this tournament — a long shot read. That comes from an expected 0.09 goal contributions (xG + xA) over the projected minutes. Like every probability on the site, it is a long-run likelihood, not a guarantee that a goal arrives in any one match.

Rafael Leão: World Cup 2026 Form

How Rafael has rated match-by-match at World Cup 2026.

7.0

Avg rating 3 games · WC 2026

7.0

Last match vs Colombia

Holding steady

6.5

vs DR Congo

19 min

7.6

vs Uzbekistan

13 min · 1G 0A

7.0

vs Colombia

20 min

Rafael Leão: Tournament Form vs Career Baseline

Per-90 output at World Cup 2026 (3 games) alongside the career baseline (51 matches on record), so you can read current form against the track record.

World Cup 2026 7.0

Career baseline 6.9

3.46 Shotsper 90 min 2.6

1.73 Shots on targetper 90 min 0.88

1.73 Key passesper 90 min 1.27

— Tacklesper 90 min 0.39

1.73 Interceptionsper 90 min 0.24

3.46 Ball recoveriesper 90 min 2.27

71 Touchesper 90 min 48

At World Cup 2026, Rafael is rating 7.0 — in line with his 6.9 career baseline.

Portugal Squad

Full squad

Rafael is part of a Portugal squad heading to World Cup 2026 in Group K.

Cristiano Ronaldo Forward 5.37 Shots / 90

Bernardo Silva Midfielder 1.47 Key passes / 90

Bruno Fernandes Midfielder 3.6 Key passes / 90

Rúben Dias Defender 0.78 Tackles / 90

João Cancelo Defender 2 Tackles / 90

Rúben Neves Midfielder 1.83 Key passes / 90

Rafael Leão: Career History

Club career, most recent first.

Lille

2018 - 2019

Sporting CP

2017 - 2018

Honours

The major titles and individual awards, grouped by competition.

2 TOTAL HONOURS

BIGGEST ACHIEVEMENTS

1× Italian Serie A 2021-2022

1× UEFA Nations League 2024-2025

HONOURS SNAPSHOT

1 League Titles

0 Cup Competitions

1 International

0 Individual Awards

League Titles 1

1× Italian Serie A
2021-2022

International 1

1× UEFA Nations League
2024-2025

Career Milestones

Key landmarks from Rafael's career.

12 LandmarksTop career moments

2 ClubsAcross top leagues

2 AchievementsMajor honours

Serie A Player Of The Month Milan ·

Serie A

Award

UEFA Champions League Player Of The Match Milan ·

UEFA Champions League

Award

Serie A Footballer of the Year AC Milan ·

Serie A

Award

Rafael Leão: Quick Facts

#10Shirt number

27Age

188cm / 6'2"Height

179 lbsWeight

Almada, PortugalBirthplace

AC Milan (ITA)Club

Rafael in pictures

Rafael Leão — Illustration — Illustration

Part of the Portugal squad at World Cup 2026

Portugal team page

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Frequently Asked Questions

What position does Rafael Leão play?

Rafael Leão plays as a Forward for AC Milan (ITA). At World Cup 2026 they represent Portugal.

How many caps does Rafael Leão have?

Rafael Leão has 45 international caps for Portugal, with 5 international goals.

What trophies has Rafael Leão won?

Rafael Leão has won 2 career honours. Notable titles include Italian Serie A (x1), UEFA Nations League (x1).

What is Portugal's chance of winning World Cup 2026?

Our model puts Portugal at 5% to win World Cup 2026 and 93% to advance from the group stage.

Which group is Portugal in at World Cup 2026?

Portugal are in Group K at World Cup 2026, facing DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia.