Algeria 3-3 Austria (FT). Group J, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Austria at 35% — it missed.
Algeria3-3Austria (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group J tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Algeria
AustriaWe made Austria our pick at 35%; it finished 3-3 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Algeria Austria Algeria and Austria shared a 3-3 draw in Group J at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Marko Arnautović, set up by David Alaba, opened the scoring on 28'. Later, Rafik Belghali levelled it at 1-1 on 45'. Marcel Sabitzer, set up by Konrad Laimer, restored Austria's lead on 55'. Moments later, Riyad Mahrez, set up by Houssem Aouar, levelled it at 2-2 on 60'. Later, Riyad Mahrez, set up by Houssem Aouar, edged Algeria in front on 90'. Moments later, Saša Kalajdžić, set up by Michael Gregoritsch, levelled it at 3-3 on 90'.
Algeria controlled the ball with 65% possession and 12 shots to Austria's 10. An expected-goals figure of 1.62 to 1.44 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Austria the 35% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Algeria 33%, Draw 32%, Austria 35%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Algeria Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Algeria and Austria drew 3-3 in their World Cup 2026 Group J clash. The six goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a booking and nine substitutions.
Algeria Marko Arnautović YELLOW Marko Arnautović Assist: David Alaba GOAL Rafik Belghali GOAL Marko Arnautović for Michael Gregoritsch SUB Xaver Schlager for Florian Grillitsch SUB Romano Schmid for Paul Wanner SUB Marcel Sabitzer Assist: Konrad Laimer GOAL Riyad Mahrez Assist: Houssem Aouar GOAL David Alaba for Kevin Danso SUB Jaouen Hadjam for Rayan Aït-Nouri SUB Amine Gouiri for Zinéddine Belaïd SUB Rafik Belghali for Samir Chergui SUB Riyad Mahrez Assist: Houssem Aouar GOAL Houssem Aouar for Farès Ghedjemis SUB Phillipp Mwene for Saša Kalajdžić SUB Saša Kalajdžić Assist: Michael Gregoritsch GOAL Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Algeria vs Austria in this World Cup 2026 Group J clash. Algeria set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Austria in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Marko Arnautović, Rafik Belghali, and Marcel Sabitzer scored from the starting XI.
Algeria vs Austria Algeria 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Austria 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Algeria's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Switzerland (0-2). Live-form lens has them at 30%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Austria's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Spain (0-3). Live-form lens: 38%.
The model expects roughly 2.31 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Austria the edge, fractionally ahead on five of six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Algeria Austria2 meetings on record between Algeria and Austria.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Algeria 3-3 Austria |
| 1982 | Algeria 0-2 Austria |
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