Belgium 1-1 Egypt (FT). Group G, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Belgium at 53% — it missed.
Belgium1-1Egypt (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group G tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Belgium
EgyptWe made Belgium our pick at 53%; it finished 1-1 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Belgium Egypt Belgium and Egypt shared a 1-1 draw in Group G at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Emam Ashour, set up by Mohamed Salah, opened the scoring on 19'. Later, an own goal levelled it at 1-1 on 66'.
Belgium controlled the ball with 53% possession and 14 shots to Egypt's 14. An expected-goals figure of 1.16 to 0.89 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Belgium the 53% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Belgium 53%, Draw 28%, Egypt 19%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Belgium Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Belgium and Egypt drew 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group G clash. The two goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought four bookings and ten substitutions.
Belgium Marwan Attia YELLOW Timothy Castagne YELLOW Emam Ashour Assist: Mohamed Salah GOAL Ahmed Fatouh YELLOW Timothy Castagne for Nicolas Raskin SUB Amadou Onana for Maxim De Cuyper SUB Charles De Ketelaere for Romelu Lukaku SUB Mohamed Hany GOAL Emam Ashour for Ramy Rabia SUB Maxim De Cuyper YELLOW Mostafa Ziko for Zizo SUB Mohamed Salah SUB Jérémy Doku for Matias Fernandez-Pardo SUB Kevin De Bruyne for Hans Vanaken SUB Hamdy Fathy for Ibrahim Adel SUB Ahmed Fatouh for Karim Hafez SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Belgium vs Egypt in this World Cup 2026 Group G clash. Belgium set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Egypt in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Emam Ashour scored from the starting XI.
Belgium vs Egypt Belgium 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Egypt 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Belgium's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Spain (1-2). Live-form lens has them at 48%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Egypt's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Argentina (2-3). Live-form lens: 22%.
The model expects roughly 2.48 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Belgium the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Belgium Egypt5 meetings on record between Belgium and Egypt.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Belgium 1-1 Egypt |
| 2022 | Egypt 2-1 Belgium |
| 2018 | Belgium 3-0 Egypt |
| 2005 | Egypt 4-0 Belgium |
| 1999 | Belgium 0-1 Egypt |
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