Group G is one of the twelve four-team groups at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the model's opening read puts Belgium firmly in control — they sit #8 in the FIFA ranking and carry a 95% probability of reaching the round of 32. Egypt are projected as the second qualifier on 71%, setting up a two-horse race for the automatic spots. Beyond the group, the model gives Belgium a 4% chance to win the tournament and 16% to reach the semi-final.
The fixture most likely to decide the group is Egypt vs Iran. The model makes it Egypt a 35% chance to win, with 33% drawn — one of the closest calls in the group, where a single goal can swing the standings.
On paper Group G shapes as one of the more competitive groups: the average FIFA ranking of the four teams is 35, and the model gives the second-place side a 71% shot at the round of 32. With the best eight third-placed teams across all groups also advancing, even a slow start is not necessarily terminal — but the model's probabilities make clear who the pressure is on.
