Belgium 0-0 Iran (FT). Group G, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Belgium at 55% — it missed.
Belgium0-0Iran (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group G tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Belgium
IranWe made Belgium our pick at 55%; it finished 0-0 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Belgium Iran Belgium and Iran played out a goalless draw in Group G at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. The shot counts finished 21 to 7.
Belgium controlled the ball with 71% possession and 21 shots to Iran's 7. An expected-goals figure of 1.77 to 0.61 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Belgium generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Belgium the 55% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Belgium 55%, Draw 28%, Iran 17%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Belgium Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Belgium and Iran played out a goalless draw in their World Cup 2026 Group G clash. The match brought a disallowed effort, one red card, two bookings, and ten substitutions.
Belgium Romelu Lukaku YELLOW Mehdi Taremi Goal Disallowed - offside VAR Saeid Ezatolahi YELLOW Saleh Hardani for Alireza Jahanbakhsh SUB Thomas Meunier for Timothy Castagne SUB Nicolas Raskin for Hans Vanaken SUB Alexis Saelemaekers for Dodi Lukébakio SUB Ehsan Hajsafi for Milad Mohammadi SUB Mohammad Mohebi for Mehdi Torabi SUB Nathan Ngoy RED Romelu Lukaku for Arthur Theate SUB Saman Ghoddos for Shahriar Moghanlou SUB Saeid Ezatolahi for Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh SUB Kevin De Bruyne for Matias Fernandez-Pardo SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Belgium vs Iran in this World Cup 2026 Group G clash. Belgium set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Iran in a 5-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below.
Belgium vs Iran Belgium 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Iran 5-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Belgium's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Spain (1-2). Live-form lens has them at 43%, a 12pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Iran's OutlookLast time out: drew vs Egypt (1-1). Live-form lens: 28% (11pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.5 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Belgium the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Belgium IranBest sportsbooks for Belgium vs Iran, chosen for 1X2 depth, fast payouts, and strong welcome offers. Compare every site.
18+ only. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. Affiliate disclosure.
