Belgium's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs Spain (1-2).
- Axel Witsel (Midfielder, 37) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Romelu Lukaku (Forward, 33) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
Belgium 3-2 Senegal (AET). Round of 32, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Belgium at 45% — it called it.
Belgium vs Senegal Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
Belgium3-2Senegal (AET) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
Belgium95%Advance
16%Semi
8%Final
4%Champion
Senegal72%Advance
6%Semi
2%Final
1%Champion
Our model called it
We made Belgium our pick at 45%, and that's how it finished (3-2). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Final Result AET
Belgium Senegal
Full-time Score
Model called it
3 AET 2
Belgium Senegal
Model pick: Belgium at 45%. Called it. Full breakdown
AET · model called it Match stats
What the model weighs
MildSeattle, WA conditions
Neutral venueNeither side at home
5 mSeattle, WA elevation
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
Belgium edged past Senegal 3-2 in Round of 32 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 32. Habib Diarra opened the scoring on 25'. Later, Ismaïla Sarr, set up by Moussa Niakhaté, doubled the lead on 51'. Romelu Lukaku, set up by Thomas Meunier, pulled one back for Belgium on 86'. Moments later, Youri Tielemans, set up by Leandro Trossard, levelled it at 2-2 on 89'. Later, Youri Tielemans edged Belgium in front on 120'.
Belgium controlled the ball with 52% possession and 19 shots to Senegal's 19. An expected-goals figure of 1.80 to 3.54 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Senegal generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Belgium the 45% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Belgium 45%, Draw 30%, Senegal 25%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
Belgium AET 3 - 2
Senegal
xG 1.80 vs 3.54
19
Total shots
19 5
Shots on goal
5 52%
Possession
48% 4
Corners
2 22
Fouls
12 86%
Pass accuracy
84% 3
Saves
3 9
Shots outside box
11 5
Blocked shots
3 11
Shots inside box
10 8
Shots outside box
9 2
Offsides
2 699
Total passes
639 1
Yellow cards
1 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
Belgium came from behind to beat Senegal 3-2 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. The five goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a disallowed effort, two bookings, and 12 substitutions.
Belgium 3 - 2 AET
Senegal
5 Goals
2 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
12 Substitutions
7 Key Moments
25' Habib Diarra GOAL
Habib Diarra GOAL 46' Charles De Ketelaere for Romelu Lukaku SUB
Charles De Ketelaere for Romelu Lukaku SUB 51' Ismaïla Sarr Assist: Moussa Niakhaté GOAL
Ismaïla Sarr Assist: Moussa Niakhaté GOAL 56' Kevin De Bruyne for Nicolas Raskin SUB
Kevin De Bruyne for Nicolas Raskin SUB 56' Jérémy Doku for Dodi Lukébakio SUB
Jérémy Doku for Dodi Lukébakio SUB 63' Hans Vanaken for Diego Moreira SUB
Hans Vanaken for Diego Moreira SUB 64' Brandon Mechele YELLOW
Brandon Mechele YELLOW 66' Pape Gueye for Lamine Camara SUB
Pape Gueye for Lamine Camara SUB 67' Lamine Camara YELLOW
Lamine Camara YELLOW 73' Habib Diarra for Pape Matar Sarr SUB
Habib Diarra for Pape Matar Sarr SUB 73' Iliman Ndiaye for Ibrahim Mbaye SUB
Iliman Ndiaye for Ibrahim Mbaye SUB 78' Maxim De Cuyper for Thomas Meunier SUB
Maxim De Cuyper for Thomas Meunier SUB 86' Romelu Lukaku Assist: Thomas Meunier GOAL
Romelu Lukaku Assist: Thomas Meunier GOAL 89' Youri Tielemans Assist: Leandro Trossard GOAL
Youri Tielemans Assist: Leandro Trossard GOAL 93' Ismail Jakobs for El Hadji Malick Diouf SUB
Ismail Jakobs for El Hadji Malick Diouf SUB 93' Sadio Mané for Nicolas Jackson SUB
Sadio Mané for Nicolas Jackson SUB 96' Idrissa Gueye for Bara Sapoko Ndiaye SUB
Idrissa Gueye for Bara Sapoko Ndiaye SUB 109' Leandro Trossard for Amadou Onana SUB
Leandro Trossard for Amadou Onana SUB 120' Youri Tielemans GOAL
Youri Tielemans GOAL 120' Youri Tielemans Penalty confirmed VAR
Youri Tielemans Penalty confirmed VAR Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Belgium vs Senegal in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. Belgium set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Senegal in a 4-3-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Habib Diarra, Ismaïla Sarr, and Youri Tielemans scored from the starting XI.
Belgium vs Senegal Belgium 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Thibaut Courtois 7.1 GK
Defence
4 Brandon Mechele 7.2 CB
21 Timothy Castagne 7.1 RB
3 Arthur Theate 6.7 CB
5 Maxim De Cuyper 7.0 LB
Midfield
20 Hans Vanaken 6.6 AM
8 Youri Tielemans 2 7.3 CM
7 Kevin De Bruyne 7.6 AM
17 Charles De Ketelaere 6.6 AM
Attack
10 Leandro Trossard 8.0 LW
11 Jérémy Doku 6.7 LW
46' Romelu Lukaku for Charles De Ketelaere
56' Nicolas Raskin for Kevin De Bruyne
56' Dodi Lukébakio for Jérémy Doku
63' Diego Moreira for Hans Vanaken
78' Thomas Meunier for Maxim De Cuyper
109' Amadou Onana for Leandro Trossard
Senegal 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
23 Mory Diaw 7.0 GK
Defence
19 Moussa Niakhaté 7.5 CB
14 Ismail Jakobs 6.8 LB
Midfield
5 Idrissa Gueye 7.7 DM
15 Krépin Diatta 6.9 RM
26 Pape Gueye 8.2 CM
13 Iliman Ndiaye 8.7 M
6 Pathé Ciss 7.0 CM
21 Habib Diarra 7.4 CM
Attack
10 Sadio Mané 7.0 LW
18 Ismaïla Sarr 8.0 LW
66' Lamine Camara for Pape Gueye
73' Pape Matar Sarr for Habib Diarra
73' Ibrahim Mbaye for Iliman Ndiaye
93' El Hadji Malick Diouf for Ismail Jakobs
93' Nicolas Jackson for Sadio Mané
96' Bara Sapoko Ndiaye for Idrissa Gueye
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Senegal's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs Belgium (2-3).
- Idrissa Gueye (Midfielder, 37) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- Sadio Mané (Forward, 34) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.44 goals here.
- BTTS at 48% and Over 2.5 at 44% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The Belgium win line (45%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
45.1% Favourite
Win Probability
24.6%
94.6%
Advance to Knockout
71.9%
16%
Reach the Semis
5.6%
7.5%
Reach the Final
2%
3.57%
Champion Chance
0.72%
2.27 Stronger attack
xG per Match
1.73
Insight: Our model gives Belgium the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Belgium
Senegal
Recent Form & Head to Head
Belgium and Senegal have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did Belgium vs Senegal end?
Belgium 3-2 Senegal (AET) in the Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Seattle, WA. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get Belgium vs Senegal right?
Yes. Our structural model made Belgium the pick at 45% (45/30/25), and the match finished belgium win (3-2). The model called it.
When and where was Belgium vs Senegal played?
Wednesday, July 1, 2026, Seattle, WA. Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 45/30/25 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between Belgium and Senegal?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between Belgium and Senegal in our dataset.