Brazil 3-0 Haiti (FT). Group C, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Brazil at 74% — it called it.
Brazil3-0Haiti (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group C tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Brazil
HaitiWe made Brazil our pick at 74%, and that's how it finished (3-0). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Brazil Haiti Brazil beat Haiti 3-0 in Group C at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Matheus Cunha opened the scoring on 23'. Later, Matheus Cunha, set up by Vinícius Júnior, doubled the lead on 36'. Vinícius Júnior, set up by Lucas Paquetá, added a third on 45'.
Brazil controlled the ball with 57% possession and 8 shots to Haiti's 8. An expected-goals figure of 1.50 to 0.25 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Brazil generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Brazil the 74% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Brazil 74%, Draw 19%, Haiti 7%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Brazil Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Brazil beat Haiti 3-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group C clash. All three goals came before the break, in a first half that also brought four bookings and ten substitutions.
Brazil Carlens Arcus YELLOW Matheus Cunha GOAL Matheus Cunha Assist: Vinícius Júnior GOAL Raphinha for Rayan SUB Vinícius Júnior Assist: Lucas Paquetá GOAL Frantzdy Pierrot YELLOW Carlens Arcus for Dominique Simon SUB Frantzdy Pierrot for Wilson Isidor SUB Josué Casimir for Louicius Deedson SUB Lucas Paquetá for Gabriel Martinelli SUB Matheus Cunha for Endrick SUB Douglas Santos YELLOW Ruben Providence for Lenny Joseph SUB Danley Jean Jacques YELLOW Vinícius Júnior for Danilo Santos SUB Bruno Guimarães for Éderson SUB Jean-Ricner Bellegarde for Derrick Etienne Jr. SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Brazil vs Haiti in this World Cup 2026 Group C clash. Brazil set up in a 4-1-2-3 and Haiti in a 5-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Matheus Cunha and Vinícius Júnior scored from the starting XI.
Brazil vs Haiti Brazil 4-1-2-3 Confirmed XI 
Haiti 5-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Brazil's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Norway (1-2). Live-form lens has them at 68%, a 6pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Haiti's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Morocco (2-4). Over 2.5 at 57% means the model expects this to stay open, which suits teams comfortable in transitions. Live-form lens: 10%.
The model expects roughly 2.96 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Brazil the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Brazil Haiti4 meetings on record between Brazil and Haiti.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Brazil 3-0 Haiti |
| 2016 | Brazil 7-1 Haiti |
| 2004 | Haiti 0-6 Brazil |
| 1974 | Brazil 4-0 Haiti |
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