Group C is one of the twelve four-team groups at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the model's opening read puts Brazil firmly in control — they sit #5 in the FIFA ranking and carry a 95% probability of reaching the round of 32. Morocco are projected as the second qualifier on 89%, setting up a two-horse race for the automatic spots. Beyond the group, the model gives Brazil a 6% chance to win the tournament and 20% to reach the semi-final.
The fixture most likely to decide the group is Brazil vs Morocco. The model makes it Brazil a 42% chance to win, with 30% drawn — a match with a clear favourite but real room for the underdog to take a point.
On paper Group C shapes as one of the more competitive groups: the average FIFA ranking of the four teams is 35, and the model gives the second-place side a 89% shot at the round of 32. With the best eight third-placed teams across all groups also advancing, even a slow start is not necessarily terminal — but the model's probabilities make clear who the pressure is on.
