Brazil 1-1 Morocco (FT). Group C, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Brazil at 42% — it missed.
Brazil1-1Morocco (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group C tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Brazil
MoroccoWe made Brazil our pick at 42%; it finished 1-1 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Brazil Morocco Brazil and Morocco shared a 1-1 draw in Group C at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Ismael Saibari, set up by Brahim Díaz, opened the scoring on 21'. Later, Vinícius Júnior, set up by Bruno Guimarães, levelled it at 1-1 on 32'.
Brazil controlled the ball with 54% possession and 12 shots to Morocco's 12. An expected-goals figure of 1.24 to 1.28 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Brazil the 42% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Brazil 42%, Draw 30%, Morocco 28%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Brazil Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group C clash. All two goals came before the break, in a first half that also brought two bookings and ten substitutions.
Brazil Ismael Saibari Assist: Brahim Díaz GOAL Vinícius Júnior Assist: Bruno Guimarães GOAL Casemiro YELLOW Roger Ibañez YELLOW Roger Ibañez for Danilo SUB Casemiro for Fabinho SUB Lucas Paquetá for Matheus Cunha SUB Igor Thiago for Luiz Henrique SUB Brahim Díaz for Chemsdine Talbi SUB Azzedine Ounahi for Samir El Mourabet SUB Noussair Mazraoui for Anass Salah-Eddine SUB Bilal El Khannous for Ayoube Amaimouni SUB Bruno Guimarães for Danilo Santos SUB Ismael Saibari for Soufiane Rahimi SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Brazil vs Morocco in this World Cup 2026 Group C clash. Brazil set up in a 4-4-2 and Morocco in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Ismael Saibari and Vinícius Júnior scored from the starting XI.
Brazil vs Morocco Brazil 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Morocco 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Brazil's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Norway (1-2). Live-form lens has them at 42%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Morocco's OutlookLast time out: lost vs France (0-2). Live-form lens: 30%.
The model expects roughly 2.49 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Brazil the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Brazil Morocco4 meetings on record between Brazil and Morocco.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Brazil 1-1 Morocco |
| 2023 | Morocco 2-1 Brazil |
| 1998 | Brazil 3-0 Morocco |
| 1997 | Brazil 2-0 Morocco |
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