Cape Verde 0-0 Saudi Arabia (FT). Group H, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Saudi Arabia at 38% — it missed.
Cape Verde0-0Saudi Arabia (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group H tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Cape Verde
Saudi ArabiaWe made Saudi Arabia our pick at 38%; it finished 0-0 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Cape Verde Saudi Arabia Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia played out a goalless draw in Group H at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. The shot counts finished 15 to 7.
Cape Verde controlled the ball with 51% possession and 15 shots to Saudi Arabia's 7. An expected-goals figure of 1.39 to 0.39 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Saudi Arabia the 38% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Cape Verde 28%, Draw 34%, Saudi Arabia 38%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Cape Verde Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia played out a goalless draw in their World Cup 2026 Group H clash. The match brought four bookings and ten substitutions.
Cape Verde Saud Abdulhamid YELLOW Wagner Pina YELLOW Hassan Al-Tambakti for Ali Lajami SUB Abdullah Al-Khaibari for Musab Al-Juwayr SUB Willy Semedo for Hélio Varela SUB Dailon Livramento for Nuno da Costa SUB Sultan Mandash for Abdullah Al-Hamdan SUB Salem Al-Dawsari for Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat SUB Nasser Al-Dawsari YELLOW Ryan Mendes for Garry Rodrigues SUB Jamiro Monteiro for Laros Duarte SUB Nawaf Boushal for Moteb Al-Harbi SUB Firas Al-Buraikan YELLOW Wagner Pina for Steven Moreira SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia in this World Cup 2026 Group H clash. Cape Verde set up in a 4-1-4-1 and Saudi Arabia in a 4-4-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below.
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia Cape Verde 4-1-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Saudi Arabia 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Cape Verde's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Argentina (2-3). Live-form lens has them at 32%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Saudi Arabia's OutlookLast time out: drew vs Cape Verde (0-0). Live-form lens: 36%.
The model expects roughly 2.04 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Saudi Arabia the edge, fractionally ahead on five of six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Cape Verde Saudi Arabia1 meeting on record between Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Cape Verde 0-0 Saudi Arabia |
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