The model gives Cape Verde a 29% probability of advancing from Group H at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and rates their title chance at 0%. Ranked #64 in the FIFA Men's World Ranking, qualification is genuinely contested rather than settled.
These are long-run probabilities, not certainties. A team rated at a 29% chance to advance still goes out roughly 71 times in 100, and the model's read can turn on a single red card, injury, or a tight decision. The outlook updates after each match Cape Verde play.
