Colombia's Outlook
Their last outing: a draw vs Switzerland (0-0).
- David Ospina (Goalkeeper, 38) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- James Rodríguez (Midfielder, 35) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
Colombia 1-0 Ghana (FT). Round of 32, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Colombia at 54% — it called it.
Colombia vs Ghana Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
Colombia1-0Ghana (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
Colombia82%Advance
8%Semi
3%Final
1%Champion
Ghana40%Advance
1%Semi
0%Final
0%Champion
Our model called it
We made Colombia our pick at 54%, and that's how it finished (1-0). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Final Result FT
Colombia Ghana
Full-time Score
Model called it
1 FT 0
Colombia Ghana
Model pick: Colombia at 54%. Called it. Full breakdown
FT · model called it Match stats
What the model weighs
HotKansas City, MO conditions
Neutral venueNeither side at home
270 mKansas City, MO elevation
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
Colombia edged past Ghana 1-0 in Round of 32 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 32. Jhon Arias opened the scoring on 14'.
Colombia controlled the ball with 61% possession and 20 shots to Ghana's 8. An expected-goals figure of 2.18 to 0.26 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Colombia generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Colombia the 54% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Colombia 54%, Draw 29%, Ghana 18%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
Colombia FT 1 - 0
Ghana
xG 2.18 vs 0.26
20
Total shots
8 8
Shots on goal
0 61%
Possession
39% 3
Corners
2 14
Fouls
10 91%
Pass accuracy
83% 0
Saves
7 8
Shots outside box
3 4
Blocked shots
5 12
Shots inside box
2 8
Shots outside box
6 2
Offsides
0 586
Total passes
376 2
Yellow cards
3 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
Colombia beat Ghana 1-0 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. The only goal came before the break.
Colombia 1 - 0 FT
Ghana
1 Goals
0 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
0 Substitutions
1 Key Moments
14' Jhon Arias GOAL
Jhon Arias GOAL No goals, cards, or substitutions in this half.
Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Colombia vs Ghana in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. Colombia set up in a 4-3-3 and Ghana in a 4-1-2-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Jhon Arias scored from the starting XI.
Colombia vs Ghana Colombia 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
12 Camilo Vargas 6.9 GK
Defence
17 Johan Mojica 7.0 LB
23 Davinson Sánchez 7.3 CB
3 Jhon Lucumí 7.0 CB
2 Daniel Muñoz 7.3 RB
Midfield
10 James Rodríguez 7.3 AM
16 Jefferson Lerma 6.9 DM
14 Gustavo Puerta 6.8 CM
Attack
9 Jhon Córdoba 6.4 CF
7 Luis Díaz 7.2 LW
11 Jhon Arias 7.0 RW
Ghana 4-1-2-3 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Lawrence Ati-Zigi 7.5 GK
Defence
23 Derrick Luckassen 7.3 CB
Midfield
5 Thomas Partey 7.1 DM
18 Jerome Opoku 7.5 D
14 Gideon Mensah 7.1 D
26 Marvin Senaya 6.9 D
8 Kwasi Sibo 6.6 CM
3 Caleb Yirenkyi 6.8 CM
Attack
19 Iñaki Williams 6.1 RW
9 Jordan Ayew 6.7 RW
11 Antoine Semenyo 6.3 RW
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
The structural model rates Ghana the value side here at a +17% gap to the market. The caveat is real, our live-form lens leans the other way, which is why confidence sits at Medium. Here is the honest case on both sides.
Ghana's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs Colombia (0-1).
- Jordan Ayew (Forward, 35) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- Thomas Partey (Midfielder, 33) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.39 goals here.
- BTTS at 43% and Over 2.5 at 43% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The Colombia win line (54%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
The +17% structural edge on Ghana is the headline. The fair-odds table makes it concrete.
- The live-form lens is the caveat, which is why confidence is Medium.
- The structural edge is the bigger, slower signal worth weighing.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
53.7% Favourite
Win Probability
17.6%
81.8%
Advance to Knockout
40%
8.3%
Reach the Semis
0.7%
3.5%
Reach the Final
0.1%
1.27%
Champion Chance
0.02%
1.43 Stronger attack
xG per Match
0.77
Insight: Our model gives Colombia the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Colombia
Ghana
Recent Form & Head to Head
Colombia and Ghana have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did Colombia vs Ghana end?
Colombia 1-0 Ghana (FT) in the Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Kansas City, MO. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get Colombia vs Ghana right?
Yes. Our structural model made Colombia the pick at 54% (54/29/18), and the match finished colombia win (1-0). The model called it.
When and where was Colombia vs Ghana played?
Saturday, July 4, 2026, Kansas City, MO. Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 54/29/18 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between Colombia and Ghana?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between Colombia and Ghana in our dataset.