DR Congo 3-1 Uzbekistan (FT). Group K, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was DR Congo at 33% — it called it.
DR Congo3-1Uzbekistan (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group K tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
DR Congo
UzbekistanWe made DR Congo our pick at 33%, and that's how it finished (3-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds DR Congo Uzbekistan DR Congo beat Uzbekistan 3-1 in Group K at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Eldor Shomurodov, set up by Akmal Mozgovoy, opened the scoring on 10'. Later, Yoane Wissa levelled it at 1-1 on 68'. Fiston Mayele edged DR Congo in front on 78'. Then Yoane Wissa, set up by Meschak Elia, added a third on 90'.
DR Congo controlled the ball with 58% possession and 19 shots to Uzbekistan's 4. An expected-goals figure of 2.35 to 0.27 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. DR Congo generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made DR Congo the 33% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was DR Congo 33%, Draw 33%, Uzbekistan 33%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
DR Congo Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
DR Congo came from behind to beat Uzbekistan 3-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group K clash. The four goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a disallowed effort, five bookings, and ten substitutions.
DR Congo Eldor Shomurodov Assist: Akmal Mozgovoy GOAL Nathanaël Mbuku Goal Disallowed - Foul VAR Noah Sadiki YELLOW Abdukodir Khusanov YELLOW Nathanaël Mbuku YELLOW Sherzod Nasrullaev YELLOW Cédric Bakambu for Fiston Mayele SUB Otabek Shukurov for Odiljon Hamrobekov SUB Dostonbek Khamdamov for Azizjon Ganiev SUB Samuel Moutoussamy YELLOW Yoane Wissa GOAL Brian Cipenga for Theo Bongonda SUB Samuel Moutoussamy for Ngal'ayel Mukau SUB Nathanaël Mbuku for Meschak Elia SUB Abbosbek Fayzullaev for Oston Urunov SUB Fiston Mayele GOAL Jakhongir Urozov for Igor Sergeev SUB Akmal Mozgovoy for Jamshid Iskanderov SUB Arthur Masuaku for Joris Kayembe SUB Yoane Wissa Assist: Meschak Elia GOAL Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for DR Congo vs Uzbekistan in this World Cup 2026 Group K clash. DR Congo set up in a 4-4-2 and Uzbekistan in a 5-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Eldor Shomurodov and Yoane Wissa scored from the starting XI.
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan DR Congo 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Uzbekistan 5-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
DR Congo's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs England (1-2). Live-form lens has them at 27%, a 6pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Uzbekistan's OutlookLast time out: lost vs DR Congo (1-3). Live-form lens: 42% (9pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.14 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives DR Congo the edge, fractionally ahead on three of six measures: better knockout odds, stronger odds of reaching the final and a stronger expected-goals output.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
DR Congo Uzbekistan1 meeting on record between DR Congo and Uzbekistan.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | DR Congo 3-1 Uzbekistan |
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