Group K is one of the twelve four-team groups at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the model's opening read puts Portugal firmly in control — they sit #7 in the FIFA ranking and carry a 93% probability of reaching the round of 32. The race for the second automatic spot is wide open. Beyond the group, the model gives Portugal a 5% chance to win the tournament and 21% to reach the semi-final.
The fixture most likely to decide the group is DR Congo vs Uzbekistan. The model makes it DR Congo a 33% chance to win, with 33% drawn — one of the closest calls in the group, where a single goal can swing the standings.
Uzbekistan are the model's underdogs in Group K (a 46% advance probability), but their best opportunity comes against DR Congo, where the model still rates them a 33% chance to win. Snatching three points there would be enough to drag them back into the qualifying conversation and turn the group on its head.
On paper Group K shapes as one of the more competitive groups: the average FIFA ranking of the four teams is 30, and the model gives the second-place side a 93% shot at the round of 32. With the best eight third-placed teams across all groups also advancing, even a slow start is not necessarily terminal — but the model's probabilities make clear who the pressure is on.
