Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao (FT). Group E, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Ecuador at 64% — it missed.
Ecuador0-0Curaçao (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group E tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Ecuador
CuraçaoWe made Ecuador our pick at 64%; it finished 0-0 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Ecuador Curaçao Ecuador and Curaçao played out a goalless draw in Group E at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. The shot counts finished 28 to 10.
Ecuador controlled the ball with 75% possession and 28 shots to Curaçao's 10. An expected-goals figure of 3.06 to 0.48 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Ecuador generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Ecuador the 64% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Ecuador 64%, Draw 25%, Curaçao 11%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Ecuador Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Ecuador and Curaçao played out a goalless draw in their World Cup 2026 Group E clash. The match brought six bookings and nine substitutions.
Ecuador Jordy Alcívar YELLOW Leandro Bacuna YELLOW Jordy Alcívar for Kevin Rodríguez SUB Juninho Bacuna YELLOW Livano Comenencia YELLOW Pervis Estupiñán for Nilson Angulo SUB Juriën Gaari YELLOW Juninho Bacuna for Kenji Gorré SUB Deveron Fonville for Roshon van Eijma SUB Tahith Chong for Jearl Margaritha SUB Alan Franco for Angelo Preciado Quiñónez SUB Jürgen Locadia for Gervane Kastaneer SUB Livano Comenencia for Godfried Roemeratoe SUB John Yeboah for Jordy Caicedo SUB Gervane Kastaneer YELLOW Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Ecuador vs Curaçao in this World Cup 2026 Group E clash. Ecuador set up in a 3-1-4-2 and Curaçao in a 5-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below.
Ecuador vs Curaçao Ecuador 3-1-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Curaçao 5-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Ecuador's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Mexico (0-2). Live-form lens has them at 73%, a 9pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Curaçao's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Ivory Coast (0-2). Live-form lens: 8%.
The model expects roughly 2.47 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Ecuador the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Ecuador Curaçao1 meeting on record between Ecuador and Curaçao.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao |
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