Egypt 1-1 Iran (FT). Group G, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Egypt at 35% — it missed.
Egypt1-1Iran (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group G tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Egypt
IranWe made Egypt our pick at 35%; it finished 1-1 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Egypt Iran Egypt and Iran shared a 1-1 draw in Group G at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Mahmoud Abdelmohsen Hassan, set up by Trézéguet, opened the scoring on 5'. Later, Ramin Rezaeian levelled it at 1-1 on 14'.
Egypt controlled the ball with 61% possession and 15 shots to Iran's 13. An expected-goals figure of 0.84 to 1.97 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Iran generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Egypt the 35% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Egypt 35%, Draw 33%, Iran 32%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Egypt Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Egypt and Iran drew 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group G clash. All two goals came before the break, in a first half that also brought a disallowed effort, seven bookings, and eight substitutions.
Egypt Mahmoud Abdelmohsen Hassan Assist: Trézéguet GOAL Mehdi Taremi Goal Mohamed Abdelmonem for Yasser Ibrahim SUB Ramin Rezaeian GOAL Hossein Kanaanizadegan YELLOW Mahmoud Abdelmohsen Hassan YELLOW Yasser Ibrahim YELLOW Ali Nemati YELLOW Emam Ashour for Omar Marmoush SUB Mahmoud Abdelmohsen Hassan for Marwan Attia SUB Hossein Kanaanizadegan for Saleh Hardani SUB Mohamed Salah for Zizo SUB Saman Ghoddos for Shahriar Moghanlou SUB Mostafa Ziko SUB Saeid Ezatolahi YELLOW Mohanad Lasheen YELLOW Shojae Khalilzadeh YELLOW Shojae Khalilzadeh Goal cancelled VAR Mohammad Mohebi for Alireza Jahanbakhsh SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Egypt vs Iran in this World Cup 2026 Group G clash. Egypt set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Iran in a 5-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Mahmoud Abdelmohsen Hassan and Ramin Rezaeian scored from the starting XI.
Egypt vs Iran Egypt 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Iran 5-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Egypt's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Argentina (2-3). Live-form lens has them at 28%, a 7pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Iran's OutlookLast time out: drew vs Egypt (1-1). Live-form lens: 41% (9pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.2 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Egypt the edge, fractionally ahead on four of six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Egypt Iran2 meetings on record between Egypt and Iran.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Egypt 1-1 Iran |
| 2000 | Iran 1-1 Egypt |
Best sportsbooks for Egypt vs Iran, chosen for 1X2 depth, fast payouts, and strong welcome offers. Compare every site.
18+ only. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. Affiliate disclosure.
