France's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs England (4-6).
- Kylian Mbappé (Forward, 28) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- N'Golo Kanté (Midfielder, 35) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
France 0-2 Spain (FT). Semi-final, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was France at 36% — it missed.
France vs Spain Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
France0-2Spain (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Semi-final tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
France97%Advance
35%Semi
22%Final
14%Champion
Spain98%Advance
33%Semi
20%Final
12%Champion
Our model missed
We made France our pick at 36%; it finished 0-2 (spain win). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
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France Spain
Full-time Score
Model missed
0 FT 2
France Spain
Model picked France at 36%. Missed (actual: Spain win). Full breakdown
FT · model missed Match stats
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
Spain beat France 2-0 in Semi-final at World Cup 2026, Matchday 0. Mikel Oyarzabal opened the scoring on 22'. Later, Pedro Porro, set up by Dani Olmo, doubled the lead on 58'.
Spain controlled the ball with 51% possession and 10 shots to France's 10. An expected-goals figure of 0.30 to 1.63 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Spain generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made France the 36% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read France 36%, Draw 30%, Spain 34%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
France FT 0 - 2
Spain
xG 0.30 vs 1.63
10
Total shots
10 3
Shots on goal
2 49%
Possession
51% 7
Corners
1 11
Fouls
12 84%
Pass accuracy
86% 0
Saves
3 5
Shots outside box
5 2
Blocked shots
3 4
Shots inside box
5 6
Shots outside box
5 4
Offsides
5 473
Total passes
500 2
Yellow cards
1 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
Spain beat France 2-0 in their World Cup 2026 Semi-final clash. The two goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought three bookings and ten substitutions.
France 0 - 2 FT
Spain
2 Goals
3 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
10 Substitutions
5 Key Moments
9' Adrien Rabiot YELLOW
Adrien Rabiot YELLOW 22' Mikel Oyarzabal GOAL
Mikel Oyarzabal GOAL 30' William Saliba for Maxence Lacroix SUB
William Saliba for Maxence Lacroix SUB 31' Marc Cucurella YELLOW
Marc Cucurella YELLOW 46' Adrien Rabiot for Manu Koné SUB
Adrien Rabiot for Manu Koné SUB 57' Bradley Barcola for Désiré Doué SUB
Bradley Barcola for Désiré Doué SUB 58' Pedro Porro Assist: Dani Olmo GOAL
Pedro Porro Assist: Dani Olmo GOAL 72' Lucas Digne for Théo Hernandez SUB
Lucas Digne for Théo Hernandez SUB 72' Michael Olise for Rayan Cherki SUB
Michael Olise for Rayan Cherki SUB 74' Mikel Oyarzabal for Ferran Torres SUB
Mikel Oyarzabal for Ferran Torres SUB 78' Fabián Ruiz for Pedri SUB
Fabián Ruiz for Pedri SUB 78' Dani Olmo for Mikel Merino SUB
Dani Olmo for Mikel Merino SUB 84' Pedro Porro for Marcos Llorente SUB
Pedro Porro for Marcos Llorente SUB 84' Álex Baena for Nico Williams SUB
Álex Baena for Nico Williams SUB 86' Kylian Mbappé YELLOW
Kylian Mbappé YELLOW Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for France vs Spain in this World Cup 2026 Semi-final clash. France set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Spain in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro scored from the starting XI.
France vs Spain France 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
16 Mike Maignan 7.0 GK
Defence
3 Lucas Digne 6.8 LB
4 Dayot Upamecano 7.5 CB
5 Jules Koundé 6.8 CB
17 William Saliba 7.1 CB
Midfield
14 Adrien Rabiot 7.0 CM
8 Aurélien Tchouaméni 7.8 DM
Attack
7 Ousmane Dembélé 9.3 RW
10 Kylian Mbappé 8.3 CF
11 Michael Olise 7.2 RW
12 Bradley Barcola 6.9 LW
30' Maxence Lacroix for William Saliba
46' Manu Koné for Adrien Rabiot
57' Désiré Doué for Bradley Barcola
72' Théo Hernandez for Lucas Digne
72' Rayan Cherki for Michael Olise
Spain 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
23 Unai Simón 7.1 GK
Defence
14 Aymeric Laporte 8.2 CB
24 Marc Cucurella 7.3 LB
12 Pedro Porro RB
22 Pau Cubarsí 7.8 CB
Midfield
16 Rodri 8.6 DM
8 Fabián Ruiz 7.1 CM
10 Dani Olmo 6.8 AM
15 Álex Baena LM
Attack
21 Mikel Oyarzabal 6.0 LW
19 Lamine Yamal 6.8 RW
74' Ferran Torres for Mikel Oyarzabal
78' Pedri for Fabián Ruiz
78' Mikel Merino for Dani Olmo
84' Marcos Llorente for Pedro Porro
84' Nico Williams for Álex Baena
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Spain's Outlook
Last time out: won vs Argentina (1-0).
- Rodri (Midfielder, 30) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- Unai Simón (Goalkeeper, 29) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.67 goals here.
- BTTS at 54% and Over 2.5 at 50% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The France win line (36%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
36.2% Favourite
Win Probability
34%
97.2%
Advance to Knockout
98.2%
35.3%
Reach the Semis
33.3%
21.8%
Reach the Final
20.2%
13.59%
Champion Chance
12.27%
1.87
xG per Match
Stronger attack 2.00
Insight: Our model gives France the edge, fractionally ahead on four of six measures: a higher win probability, a clearer path to the semis and stronger odds of reaching the final.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
France
Spain
Recent Form & Head to Head
France and Spain have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did France vs Spain end?
France 0-2 Spain (FT) in the Semi-final stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Arlington, TX. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get France vs Spain right?
No. Our structural model made France the pick at 36% (36/30/34), but it finished spain win (0-2). The model missed this one, and we'd rather say so than dress it up.
When and where was France vs Spain played?
Tuesday, July 14, 2026, Arlington, TX. Semi-final stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 36/30/34 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between France and Spain?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between France and Spain in our dataset.