Semi-final is one of the twelve four-team groups at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the model's opening read puts Spain firmly in control — they sit #1 in the FIFA ranking and carry a 98% probability of reaching the round of 32. Argentina are projected as the second qualifier on 97%, setting up a two-horse race for the automatic spots. Beyond the group, the model gives Spain a 12% chance to win the tournament and 33% to reach the semi-final.
The fixture most likely to decide the group is France vs Spain. The model makes it France a 36% chance to win, with 30% drawn — one of the closest calls in the group, where a single goal can swing the standings.
Argentina are the model's underdogs in Semi-final (a 97% advance probability), but their best opportunity comes against England, where the model still rates them a 34% chance to win. Snatching three points there would be enough to drag them back into the qualifying conversation and turn the group on its head.
On paper Semi-final shapes as one of the more competitive groups: the average FIFA ranking of the four teams is 3, and the model gives the second-place side a 97% shot at the round of 32. With the best eight third-placed teams across all groups also advancing, even a slow start is not necessarily terminal — but the model's probabilities make clear who the pressure is on.
