Germany 7-1 Curaçao (FT). Group E, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Germany at 79% — it called it.
Germany7-1Curaçao (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group E tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Germany
CuraçaoWe made Germany our pick at 79%, and that's how it finished (7-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Germany Curaçao Germany beat Curaçao 7-1 in Group E at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Felix Nmecha, set up by Florian Wirtz, opened the scoring on 6'. Later, Livano Comenencia levelled it at 1-1 on 21'. Nico Schlotterbeck, set up by Nathaniel Brown, restored Germany's lead on 38'. Moments later, Kai Havertz added a third on 45'. Soon after, Jamal Musiala, set up by Joshua Kimmich, added a fourth on 47'. Nathaniel Brown, set up by Deniz Undav, made it 5-1 on 68'. Then Deniz Undav, set up by Joshua Kimmich, made it 6-1 on 78'. Later, Kai Havertz, set up by Deniz Undav, made it 7-1 on 88'.
Germany controlled the ball with 65% possession and 26 shots to Curaçao's 8. An expected-goals figure of 3.90 to 0.40 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Germany generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Germany the 79% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Germany 79%, Draw 16%, Curaçao 5%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Germany Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Germany beat Curaçao 7-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group E clash. The eight goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought eight substitutions.
Germany Felix Nmecha Assist: Florian Wirtz GOAL Livano Comenencia GOAL Nico Schlotterbeck Assist: Nathaniel Brown GOAL Kai Havertz GOAL Sontje Hansen for Jeremy Antonisse SUB Jamal Musiala Assist: Joshua Kimmich GOAL Jamal Musiala for Deniz Undav SUB Jürgen Locadia for Jearl Margaritha SUB Nathaniel Brown Assist: Deniz Undav GOAL Jonathan Tah for Antonio Rüdiger SUB Felix Nmecha for Leon Goretzka SUB Nathaniel Brown for David Raum SUB Deniz Undav Assist: Joshua Kimmich GOAL Tahith Chong for Gervane Kastaneer SUB Joshua Kimmich for Waldemar Anton SUB Kai Havertz Assist: Deniz Undav GOAL Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Germany vs Curaçao in this World Cup 2026 Group E clash. Germany set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Curaçao in a 4-3-1-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Felix Nmecha, Livano Comenencia, and Nico Schlotterbeck scored from the starting XI.
Germany vs Curaçao Germany 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Curaçao 4-3-1-2 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Germany's OutlookTheir last outing: a draw vs Paraguay (1-1). Live-form lens has them at 75%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Curaçao's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Ivory Coast (0-2). Over 2.5 at 62% means the model expects this to stay open, which suits teams comfortable in transitions. Live-form lens: 8%.
The model expects roughly 3.21 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Germany the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Germany Curaçao1 meeting on record between Germany and Curaçao.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Germany 7-1 Curaçao |
Best sportsbooks for Germany vs Curaçao, chosen for 1X2 depth, fast payouts, and strong welcome offers. Compare every site.
18+ only. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. Affiliate disclosure.
