Germany 2-1 Ivory Coast (FT). Group E, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Germany at 54% — it called it.
Germany2-1Ivory Coast (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group E tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Germany
Ivory CoastWe made Germany our pick at 54%, and that's how it finished (2-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Germany Ivory Coast Germany edged past Ivory Coast 2-1 in Group E at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Franck Kessié opened the scoring on 30'. Later, Deniz Undav, set up by Nadiem Amiri, levelled it at 1-1 on 68'. Deniz Undav, set up by Felix Nmecha, edged Germany in front on 90'.
Germany controlled the ball with 60% possession and 16 shots to Ivory Coast's 9. An expected-goals figure of 1.84 to 1.23 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Germany the 54% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Germany 54%, Draw 28%, Ivory Coast 18%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Germany Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Germany came from behind to beat Ivory Coast 2-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group E clash. The three goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought ten substitutions.
Germany Franck Kessié GOAL Nico Schlotterbeck for Antonio Rüdiger SUB Aleksandar Pavlović for Nadiem Amiri SUB Jamal Musiala for Deniz Undav SUB Leroy Sané for Jamie Leweling SUB Deniz Undav Assist: Nadiem Amiri GOAL Amad Diallo for Simon Adingra SUB Ibrahim Sangaré for Seko Fofana SUB Ange-Yoan Bonny for Evann Guessand SUB Wilfried Singo for Guéla Doué SUB Kai Havertz for Leon Goretzka SUB Yan Diomande for Nicolas Pépé SUB Deniz Undav Assist: Felix Nmecha GOAL Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Germany vs Ivory Coast in this World Cup 2026 Group E clash. Germany set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Ivory Coast in a 4-3-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Franck Kessié scored from the starting XI.
Germany vs Ivory Coast Germany 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Ivory Coast 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Germany's OutlookTheir last outing: a draw vs Paraguay (1-1). Live-form lens has them at 59%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Ivory Coast's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Norway (1-2). Live-form lens: 16%.
The model expects roughly 2.59 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Germany the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Germany Ivory Coast2 meetings on record between Germany and Ivory Coast.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Germany 2-1 Ivory Coast |
| 2009 | Germany 2-2 Ivory Coast |
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