The model gives Ivory Coast a 76% probability of advancing from Group E at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and rates their title chance at 0%. Ranked #31 in the FIFA Men's World Ranking, they are expected to reach the knockout rounds, but the title probability says they are a realistic qualifier rather than a favourite.
These are long-run probabilities, not certainties. A team rated at a 76% chance to advance still goes out roughly 24 times in 100, and the model's read can turn on a single red card, injury, or a tight decision. The outlook updates after each match Ivory Coast play.
