Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador (FT). Group E, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Ecuador at 37% — it missed.
Ivory Coast1-0Ecuador (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group E tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Ivory Coast
EcuadorWe made Ecuador our pick at 37%; it finished 1-0 (ivory coast win). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Ivory Coast Ecuador Ivory Coast edged past Ecuador 1-0 in Group E at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Amad Diallo, set up by Wilfried Singo, opened the scoring on 90'.
Ecuador controlled the ball with 52% possession and 12 shots to Ivory Coast's 15. An expected-goals figure of 1.52 to 1.01 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Ecuador the 37% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Ivory Coast 30%, Draw 32%, Ecuador 37%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Ivory Coast Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Ivory Coast beat Ecuador 1-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group E clash. The only goal arrived after the restart, in a second half that also brought four bookings and nine substitutions.
Ivory Coast Seko Fofana YELLOW Franck Kessié YELLOW Guéla Doué YELLOW Alan Minda for Nilson Angulo SUB Elye Wahi for Ange-Yoan Bonny SUB Bazoumana Touré for Amad Diallo SUB John Yeboah for Angelo Preciado Quiñónez SUB Alan Franco for Jackson Porozo SUB Jackson Porozo YELLOW Nicolas Pépé for Christ Inao Oulaï SUB Seko Fofana for Ibrahim Sangaré SUB Enner Valencia for Kevin Rodríguez SUB Guéla Doué for Odilon Kossounou SUB Amad Diallo Assist: Wilfried Singo GOAL Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Ivory Coast vs Ecuador in this World Cup 2026 Group E clash. Ivory Coast set up in a 4-4-2 and Ecuador in a 3-4-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below.
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Ivory Coast 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Ecuador 3-4-3 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Ivory Coast's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Norway (1-2). Live-form lens has them at 24%, a 6pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Ecuador's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Mexico (0-2). Live-form lens: 47% (10pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.25 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Ecuador the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Ivory Coast Ecuador1 meeting on record between Ivory Coast and Ecuador.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador |
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