Mexico's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs England (2-3).
- Guillermo Ochoa (Goalkeeper, 41) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Raúl Jiménez (Forward, 35) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
Mexico 2-3 England (FT). Round of 16, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was England at 48% — it called it.
Mexico vs England Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
Mexico2-3England (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 16 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
Mexico93%Advance
17%Semi
8%Final
4%Champion
England97%Advance
31%Semi
19%Final
11%Champion
Our model called it
We made England our pick at 48%, and that's how it finished (2-3). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Final Result FT
Mexico England
Full-time Score
Model called it
2 FT 3
Mexico England
Model pick: England at 48%. Called it. Full breakdown
FT · model called it Match stats
What the model weighs
High Altitude MildMexico City conditions
Neutral venueNeither side at home
2240 mMexico City elevation
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
England edged past Mexico 3-2 in Round of 16 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 16. Jude Bellingham, set up by Bukayo Saka, opened the scoring on 36'. Moments later, Jude Bellingham, set up by Harry Kane, doubled the lead on 38'. Soon after, Julián Quiñones pulled one back for Mexico on 42'. Then Harry Kane added a third on 60'. Later, Raúl Jiménez pulled one back for Mexico on 69'.
Mexico controlled the ball with 67% possession and 20 shots to England's 6. An expected-goals figure of 1.87 to 1.55 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made England the 48% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Mexico 23%, Draw 29%, England 48%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
Mexico FT 2 - 3
England
xG 1.87 vs 1.55
20
Total shots
6 5
Shots on goal
5 67%
Possession
33% 12
Corners
2 14
Fouls
7 92%
Pass accuracy
80% 2
Saves
3 8
Shots outside box
1 7
Blocked shots
0 12
Shots inside box
4 8
Shots outside box
2 1
Offsides
0 455
Total passes
244 2
Yellow cards
4 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
England beat Mexico 3-2 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 16 clash. The five goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought one red card, six bookings, and nine substitutions.
Mexico 2 - 3 FT
England
5 Goals
6 Yellow Cards
1 Red Cards
9 Substitutions
12 Key Moments
1' Declan Rice YELLOW
Declan Rice YELLOW 36' Jude Bellingham Assist: Bukayo Saka GOAL
Jude Bellingham Assist: Bukayo Saka GOAL 38' Jude Bellingham Assist: Harry Kane GOAL
Jude Bellingham Assist: Harry Kane GOAL 42' Julián Quiñones GOAL
Julián Quiñones GOAL 46' César Montes for Edson Álvarez SUB
César Montes for Edson Álvarez SUB 54' Jarell Quansah RED
Jarell Quansah RED 57' Bukayo Saka for John Stones SUB
Bukayo Saka for John Stones SUB 60' Harry Kane GOAL
Harry Kane GOAL 61' Gilberto Mora for Santiago Giménez SUB
Gilberto Mora for Santiago Giménez SUB 61' Luis Romo for Brian Gutiérrez SUB
Luis Romo for Brian Gutiérrez SUB 68' Marc Guéhi YELLOW
Marc Guéhi YELLOW 69' Raúl Jiménez GOAL
Raúl Jiménez GOAL 71' Jorge Sánchez YELLOW
Jorge Sánchez YELLOW 72' Nico O'Reilly YELLOW
Nico O'Reilly YELLOW 74' Nico O'Reilly for Djed Spence SUB
Nico O'Reilly for Djed Spence SUB 75' Elliot Anderson for Dan Burn SUB
Elliot Anderson for Dan Burn SUB 79' Jorge Sánchez for Álvaro Fidalgo SUB
Jorge Sánchez for Álvaro Fidalgo SUB 81' Julián Quiñones for Guillermo Martínez SUB
Julián Quiñones for Guillermo Martínez SUB 90' Harry Kane for Morgan Rogers SUB
Harry Kane for Morgan Rogers SUB 90' Johan Vásquez YELLOW
Johan Vásquez YELLOW 90' Jordan Henderson YELLOW
Jordan Henderson YELLOW Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Mexico vs England in this World Cup 2026 Round of 16 clash. Mexico set up in a 4-3-3 and England in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Jude Bellingham, Julián Quiñones, and Harry Kane scored from the starting XI.
Mexico vs England Mexico 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Raúl Rangel 7.1 GK
Defence
23 Jesús Gallardo 6.7 LB
5 Johan Vásquez CB
3 César Montes 7.3 CB
2 Jorge Sánchez 7.3 RB
Midfield
7 Luis Romo 6.8 DM
6 Érik Lira DM
19 Gilberto Mora 6.8 AM
Attack
9 Raúl Jiménez CF
16 Julián Quiñones 7.3 CF
25 Roberto Alvarado 7.1 RW
46' Edson Álvarez for César Montes
61' Santiago Giménez for Gilberto Mora
61' Brian Gutiérrez for Luis Romo
79' Álvaro Fidalgo for Jorge Sánchez
81' Guillermo Martínez for Julián Quiñones
England 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Jordan Pickford 7.0 GK
Defence
2 Ezri Konsa 7.4 CB
6 Marc Guéhi 7.4 CB
26 Jarell Quansah CB
3 Nico O'Reilly 6.6 LB
Midfield
4 Declan Rice 7.1 CM
10 Jude Bellingham 2 6.6 AM
8 Elliot Anderson 7.1 CM
Attack
9 Harry Kane 7.8 CF
7 Bukayo Saka 7.0 RW
18 Anthony Gordon 6.6 LW
57' John Stones for Bukayo Saka
74' Djed Spence for Nico O'Reilly
75' Dan Burn for Elliot Anderson
90' Morgan Rogers for Harry Kane
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
The structural model rates England the value side here at a +9% gap to the market. The caveat is real, our live-form lens leans the other way, which is why confidence sits at Medium. Here is the honest case on both sides.
England's Outlook
Last time out: won vs France (6-4).
- Harry Kane (Forward, 33) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- John Stones (Defender, 32) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.58 goals here.
- BTTS at 50% and Over 2.5 at 48% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The England win line (48%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
The +9% structural edge on England is the headline. The fair-odds table makes it concrete.
- The live-form lens is the caveat, which is why confidence is Medium.
- The structural edge is the bigger, slower signal worth weighing.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
23.2%
Win Probability
Favourite 47.7%
92.7%
Advance to Knockout
97%
16.6%
Reach the Semis
31.3%
8.4%
Reach the Final
19.4%
4.03%
Champion Chance
11.17%
1.23
xG per Match
Stronger attack 1.90
Insight: Our model gives England the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Mexico
England
Recent Form & Head to Head
L2-3
vs EnglandW2-0
vs EcuadorW3-0
vs Czech RepublicW1-0
vs South KoreaW2-0
vs South AfricaMexico and England have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
View match analysisTop Betting Sites for This Match
View all betting sitesBest sportsbooks for Mexico vs England, chosen for 1X2 depth, fast payouts, and strong welcome offers. Compare every site.
18+ only. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. Affiliate disclosure.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Mexico vs England end?
Mexico 2-3 England (FT) in the Round of 16 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Mexico City. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get Mexico vs England right?
Yes. Our structural model made England the pick at 48% (23/29/48), and the match finished england win (2-3). The model called it.
When and where was Mexico vs England played?
Monday, July 6, 2026, Mexico City. Round of 16 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 23/29/48 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between Mexico and England?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between Mexico and England in our dataset.