Morocco 4-2 Haiti (FT). Group C, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Morocco at 66% — it called it.
Morocco4-2Haiti (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group C tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Morocco
HaitiWe made Morocco our pick at 66%, and that's how it finished (4-2). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Morocco Haiti Morocco beat Haiti 4-2 in Group C at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. An own goal put Haiti ahead on 10'. Later, Achraf Hakimi levelled it at 1-1 on 39'. Soon after, Wilson Isidor, set up by Jean-Kevin Duverne, restored Haiti's lead on 43'. Moments later, Ismael Saibari, set up by Achraf Hakimi, levelled it at 2-2 on 45'. Later, Soufiane Rahimi, set up by Chadi Riad, edged Morocco in front on 78'. Gessime Yassine, set up by Soufiane Rahimi, added a fourth on 89'.
Morocco controlled the ball with 69% possession and 22 shots to Haiti's 9. An expected-goals figure of 3.76 to 0.67 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Morocco generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Morocco the 66% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Morocco 66%, Draw 23%, Haiti 10%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Morocco Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Morocco came from behind to beat Haiti 4-2 in their World Cup 2026 Group C clash. The six goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought three bookings and ten substitutions.
Morocco Bono GOAL Achraf Hakimi GOAL Wilson Isidor Assist: Jean-Kevin Duverne GOAL Ismael Saibari Assist: Achraf Hakimi GOAL Ruben Providence for Duckens Nazon SUB Wilson Isidor for Louicius Deedson SUB Ayoub El Kaabi for Gessime Yassine SUB Brahim Díaz for Azzedine Ounahi SUB Ismael Saibari for Soufiane Rahimi SUB Soufiane Rahimi Assist: Chadi Riad GOAL Johny Placide YELLOW Duckens Nazon YELLOW Danley Jean Jacques for Dominique Simon SUB Jean-Kevin Duverne for Carlens Arcus SUB Anass Salah-Eddine for Noussair Mazraoui SUB Neil El Aynaoui for Samir El Mourabet SUB Lenny Joseph for Frantzdy Pierrot SUB Gessime Yassine Assist: Soufiane Rahimi GOAL Josué Casimir YELLOW Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Morocco vs Haiti in this World Cup 2026 Group C clash. Morocco set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Haiti in a 4-4-1-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Achraf Hakimi, Wilson Isidor, and Ismael Saibari scored from the starting XI.
Morocco vs Haiti Morocco 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Haiti 4-4-1-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Morocco's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs France (0-2). Live-form lens has them at 63%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Haiti's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Morocco (2-4). Live-form lens: 13%.
The model expects roughly 2.65 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Morocco the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
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