Summary

Netherlands 5-1 Sweden (FT). Group F, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Netherlands at 50% — it called it.

Netherlands vs Sweden Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

Netherlands5-1Sweden (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group F tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

Netherlands

89%Advance

16%Semi

8%Final

4%Champion

Sweden

66%Advance

4%Semi

1%Final

0%Champion

Our model called it

We made Netherlands our pick at 50%, and that's how it finished (5-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: Netherlands 50% Structural: 50/29/21 Actual: Netherlands win (5-1)

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Final Result FT

Sat, Jun 20 · Houston · Match 2 · Group F

Netherlands

Sweden

Full-time Score Model called it

5 FT 1

Netherlands Sweden

Model pick: Netherlands at 50%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

Very Hot Humid IndoorHouston conditions

376.3 / 652.5 kmTravel, NET / SWE

6 days eachRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

15 mHouston elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 in Group F at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Brian Brobbey, set up by Cody Gakpo, opened the scoring on 5'. Later, Brian Brobbey, set up by Denzel Dumfries, doubled the lead on 17'. Cody Gakpo, set up by Denzel Dumfries, added a third on 47'. Moments later, Cody Gakpo, set up by Crysencio Summerville, added a fourth on 54'. Soon after, Anthony Elanga, set up by Alexander Isak, pulled one back, making it 4-1 on 59'. Crysencio Summerville, set up by Memphis Depay, made it 5-1 on 89'.

Netherlands controlled the ball with 52% possession and 10 shots to Sweden's 15. An expected-goals figure of 2.47 to 0.94 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Netherlands generated the clearer chances by some distance.

Our structural model had made Netherlands the 50% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Netherlands 50%, Draw 29%, Sweden 21%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

Netherlands

FT 5 - 1

Sweden

xG 2.47 vs 0.94

Total shots

Shots on goal

52%

Possession

48%

Corners

Fouls

88%

Pass accuracy

86%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

450

Total passes

409

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group F clash. The six goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought three bookings and ten substitutions.

Netherlands

5 - 1 FT

Sweden

6 Goals

3 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

10 Substitutions

9 Key Moments

Brian Brobbey Assist: Cody Gakpo GOAL

17'

Brian Brobbey Assist: Denzel Dumfries GOAL

46'

Donyell Malen for Crysencio Summerville SUB

47'

Cody Gakpo Assist: Denzel Dumfries GOAL

53'

Gabriel Gudmundsson YELLOW

54'

Cody Gakpo Assist: Crysencio Summerville GOAL

55'

Alexander Bernhardsson for Anthony Elanga SUB

56'

Jesper Karlström for Besfort Zeneli SUB

56'

Benjamin Nygren for Lucas Bergvall SUB

59'

Anthony Elanga Assist: Alexander Isak GOAL

59'

Frenkie de Jong for Teun Koopmeiners SUB

59'

Tijjani Reijnders for Guus Til SUB

72'

Brian Brobbey for Memphis Depay SUB

75'

Yasin Ayari YELLOW

79'

Yasin Ayari for Taha Ali SUB

80'

Lucas Bergvall YELLOW

89'

Crysencio Summerville Assist: Memphis Depay GOAL

90'

Cody Gakpo for Noa Lang SUB

90'

Gabriel Gudmundsson for Elliot Stroud SUB

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Netherlands vs Sweden in this World Cup 2026 Group F clash. Netherlands set up in a 4-3-3 and Sweden in a 3-5-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Brian Brobbey and Cody Gakpo scored from the starting XI.

Netherlands vs Sweden

Netherlands 4-3-3 Confirmed XI

Virgil van Dijk Key player · 7.8

Denzel Dumfries Key player · 6.0

Frenkie de Jong Key player · 6.9

Goalkeeper

1 Bart Verbruggen 6.5 GK

Defence

4 Virgil van Dijk 7.8 CB

15 Micky van de Ven CB

6 Jan Paul van Hecke 9.2 CB

Midfield

22 Denzel Dumfries 6.0 RM

21 Frenkie de Jong 6.9 CM

8 Ryan Gravenberch 6.9 CM

14 Tijjani Reijnders 7.1 CM

Attack

18 Donyell Malen 6.7 RW

11 Cody Gakpo 2 6.3 LW

19 Brian Brobbey 2 7.2 CF

46' Crysencio Summerville for Donyell Malen

59' Teun Koopmeiners for Frenkie de Jong

59' Guus Til for Tijjani Reijnders

72' Memphis Depay for Brian Brobbey

90' Noa Lang for Cody Gakpo

Sweden 3-5-2 Confirmed XI

Victor Lindelöf Key player · 6.5

Alexander Isak Key player · 7.4

Viktor Gyökeres Key player · 7.2

Goalkeeper

23 Kristoffer Nordfeldt 6.4 GK

Defence

3 Victor Lindelöf 6.5 CB

2 Gustaf Lagerbielke 6.7 CB

Midfield

5 Gabriel Gudmundsson 7.3 M

16 Jesper Karlström 6.4 DM

4 Isak Hien 6.8 D

18 Yasin Ayari 7.8 CM

Attack

9 Alexander Isak 7.4 CF

17 Viktor Gyökeres 7.2 CF

10 Benjamin Nygren 6.8 RW

21 Alexander Bernhardsson 6.5 RW

55' Anthony Elanga for Alexander Bernhardsson

56' Besfort Zeneli for Jesper Karlström

56' Lucas Bergvall for Benjamin Nygren

79' Taha Ali for Yasin Ayari

90' Elliot Stroud for Gabriel Gudmundsson

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

Netherlands's Outlook

Their last outing: a draw vs Morocco (1-1). Live-form lens has them at 67%, a 17pp split from the structural read worth noting.

Memphis Depay (Forward, 32) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Virgil van Dijk (Defender, 35) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Sweden's Outlook

Last time out: lost vs France (0-3). Live-form lens: 13% (8pp divergence from structural).

Victor Lindelöf (Defender, 32) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Alexander Isak (Forward, 27) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.53 goals here.

BTTS at 48% and Over 2.5 at 46% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The Netherlands win line (50%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

Netherlands UEFA

Group F, 1st

Sweden

Group F, 3rd

49.5% Favourite

Win Probability

21.5%

89.3%

Advance to Knockout

65.6%

15.9%

Reach the Semis

3.9%

8.3%

Reach the Final

1.4%

4.07%

Champion Chance

0.41%

1.63 Stronger attack

xG per Match

0.93

Insight: Our model gives Netherlands the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group F standings & all matches

Group F: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

Netherlands

Memphis Depay C

Forward · 32 · SC Corinthians (BRA)

110Caps

55Goals

Virgil van Dijk

Defender · 35 · Liverpool FC (ENG)

93Caps

13Goals

Denzel Dumfries

Defender · 30 · FC Internazionale Milano (ITA)

73Caps

11Goals

Frenkie de Jong

Midfielder · 29 · FC Barcelona (ESP)

67Caps

2Goals

Sweden

Victor Lindelöf C

Defender · 32 · Aston Villa FC (ENG)

77Caps

3Goals

Alexander Isak

Forward · 27 · Liverpool FC (ENG)

59Caps

18Goals

Mattias Svanberg

Midfielder · 27 · VfL Wolfsburg (GER)

41Caps

3Goals

Viktor Gyökeres

Forward · 28 · Arsenal FC (ENG)

34Caps

21Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

D1-1

vs Morocco

W3-1

vs Tunisia

W5-1

vs Sweden

D2-2

vs Japan

W2-1

vs Uzbekistan

View match analysis

L0-3

vs France

D1-1

vs Japan

L1-5

vs Netherlands

W5-1

vs Tunisia

D2-2

vs Greece

View match analysis

26 meetings on record between Netherlands and Sweden.

Year	Score
2026	Netherlands 5-1 Sweden
2017	Netherlands 2-0 Sweden
2016	Sweden 1-1 Netherlands
2011	Sweden 3-2 Netherlands
2010	Netherlands 4-1 Sweden

View match analysis

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Netherlands vs Sweden end?

Netherlands 5-1 Sweden (FT) in the Group F stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Houston. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get Netherlands vs Sweden right?

Yes. Our structural model made Netherlands the pick at 50% (50/29/21), and the match finished netherlands win (5-1). The model called it.

When and where was Netherlands vs Sweden played?

Saturday, June 20, 2026, Houston. Group F stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 50/29/21 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between Netherlands and Sweden?

Before this match, Netherlands and Sweden had met 26 times: 12 Netherlands wins, 8 Sweden wins, 6 draws.