Sweden at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Group F. FIFA #37. Model: 66% to advance, 0% to win.
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Group F · World Cup 2026Sweden open their World Cup 2026 campaign in Group F, facing Tunisia, Netherlands, Japan. Our model gives them a 66% shot at reaching the round of 16, realistic if they can take points off the group's weaker sides. They arrive on the back of L-D-L in recent results, their last outing a loss against France (0-3).
The model gives Sweden a 66% probability of advancing from Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and rates their title chance at 0%. Ranked #37 in the FIFA Men's World Ranking, qualification is genuinely contested rather than settled.
These are long-run probabilities, not certainties. A team rated at a 66% chance to advance still goes out roughly 34 times in 100, and the model's read can turn on a single red card, injury, or a tight decision. The outlook updates after each match Sweden play.
Six model dimensions — form, attack, defense, ranking, pedigree and tournament outlook — against the 48-team average (dashed). Where the blue polygon bulges past the dashed line, Sweden rates above the field.
Compare Sweden head-to-head with any team →
Every Sweden match at the 2026 World Cup, with our model's win probability for each game. Starting in Group F.
Players grouped by position, sorted by international caps. Squad data straight from the gaffer's pipeline.
Sweden's last 6 results, including World Cup 2026 fixtures, most recent first.
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