Norway's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs England (1-2).
- Alexander Sørloth (Forward, 31) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Ørjan Nyland (Goalkeeper, 36) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
Norway 1-2 England (AET). Quarter-final, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was England at 55% — it called it.
Norway vs England Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
Norway1-2England (AET) in this World Cup 2026 Quarter-final tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
Norway74%Advance
6%Semi
2%Final
1%Champion
England97%Advance
31%Semi
19%Final
11%Champion
Our model called it
We made England our pick at 55%, and that's how it finished (1-2). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Final Result AET
Norway England
Full-time Score
Model called it
1 AET 2
Norway England
Model pick: England at 55%. Called it. Full breakdown
AET · model called it Match stats
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
England edged past Norway 2-1 in Quarter-final at World Cup 2026, Matchday 0. Andreas Schjelderup, set up by Martin Ødegaard, opened the scoring on 36'. Later, Jude Bellingham, set up by Anthony Gordon, levelled it at 1-1 on 45'. Jude Bellingham edged England in front on 93'.
England controlled the ball with 52% possession and 14 shots to Norway's 13. An expected-goals figure of 0.77 to 1.09 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made England the 55% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Norway 18%, Draw 27%, England 55%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
Norway AET 1 - 2
England
xG 0.77 vs 1.09
13
Total shots
14 4
Shots on goal
8 48%
Possession
52% 7
Corners
4 10
Fouls
8 85%
Pass accuracy
91% 6
Saves
3 6
Shots outside box
3 3
Blocked shots
3 10
Shots inside box
8 3
Shots outside box
6 1
Offsides
5 576
Total passes
626 1
Yellow cards
0 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
England came from behind to beat Norway 2-1 in their World Cup 2026 Quarter-final clash. The three goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a disallowed effort, a booking, and 12 substitutions.
Norway 1 - 2 AET
England
3 Goals
1 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
12 Substitutions
4 Key Moments
36' Andreas Schjelderup Assist: Martin Ødegaard GOAL
Andreas Schjelderup Assist: Martin Ødegaard GOAL 45' Jude Bellingham Assist: Anthony Gordon GOAL
Jude Bellingham Assist: Anthony Gordon GOAL 46' Noni Madueke for Bukayo Saka SUB
Noni Madueke for Bukayo Saka SUB 46' Declan Rice for Eberechi Eze SUB
Declan Rice for Eberechi Eze SUB 56' Torbjørn Heggem Goal cancelled VAR
Torbjørn Heggem Goal cancelled VAR 60' Julian Ryerson for Fredrik Aursnes SUB
Julian Ryerson for Fredrik Aursnes SUB 68' Andreas Schjelderup for Antonio Nusa SUB
Andreas Schjelderup for Antonio Nusa SUB 68' Alexander Sørloth for Oscar Bobb SUB
Alexander Sørloth for Oscar Bobb SUB 71' Anthony Gordon for Reece James SUB
Anthony Gordon for Reece James SUB 86' Nico O'Reilly for Djed Spence SUB
Nico O'Reilly for Djed Spence SUB 89' Ezri Konsa for Morgan Rogers SUB
Ezri Konsa for Morgan Rogers SUB 90' David Møller Wolfe for Marcus Pedersen SUB
David Møller Wolfe for Marcus Pedersen SUB 91' Torbjørn Heggem for Leo Østigård SUB
Torbjørn Heggem for Leo Østigård SUB 93' Jude Bellingham GOAL
Jude Bellingham GOAL 101' Djed Spence Penalty cancelled VAR
Djed Spence Penalty cancelled VAR 106' Erling Haaland for Jørgen Strand Larsen SUB
Erling Haaland for Jørgen Strand Larsen SUB 111' Jude Bellingham for Dan Burn SUB
Jude Bellingham for Dan Burn SUB 117' Kristoffer Ajer YELLOW
Kristoffer Ajer YELLOW Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Norway vs England in this World Cup 2026 Quarter-final clash. Norway set up in a 4-3-3 and England in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Andreas Schjelderup and Jude Bellingham scored from the starting XI.
Norway vs England Norway 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Ørjan Nyland 6.7 GK
Defence
3 Kristoffer Ajer 6.8 CB
26 Julian Ryerson 6.8 RB
5 David Møller Wolfe 7.1 LB
17 Torbjørn Heggem 6.9 CB
Midfield
10 Martin Ødegaard 7.2 AM
8 Sander Berge 6.8 DM
6 Patrick Berg 6.6 DM
Attack
9 Erling Haaland 8.4 CF
7 Alexander Sørloth 6.3 CF
21 Andreas Schjelderup 6.9 CF
60' Fredrik Aursnes for Julian Ryerson
68' Antonio Nusa for Andreas Schjelderup
68' Oscar Bobb for Alexander Sørloth
90' Marcus Pedersen for David Møller Wolfe
91' Leo Østigård for Torbjørn Heggem
106' Jørgen Strand Larsen for Erling Haaland
England 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Jordan Pickford 7.0 GK
Defence
5 John Stones 8.3 CB
2 Ezri Konsa 7.4 CB
6 Marc Guéhi 7.4 CB
3 Nico O'Reilly 6.6 LB
Midfield
4 Declan Rice 7.1 CM
10 Jude Bellingham 2 6.6 AM
8 Elliot Anderson 7.1 CM
Attack
9 Harry Kane 7.8 CF
18 Anthony Gordon 6.6 LW
20 Noni Madueke 6.8 RW
46' Bukayo Saka for Noni Madueke
46' Eberechi Eze for Declan Rice
71' Reece James for Anthony Gordon
86' Djed Spence for Nico O'Reilly
89' Morgan Rogers for Ezri Konsa
111' Dan Burn for Jude Bellingham
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
England's Outlook
Last time out: won vs France (6-4).
- Harry Kane (Forward, 33) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- John Stones (Defender, 32) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.65 goals here.
- BTTS at 48% and Over 2.5 at 49% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The England win line (55%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
17.8%
Win Probability
Favourite 55.1%
74.1%
Advance to Knockout
97%
6.2%
Reach the Semis
31.3%
2.4%
Reach the Final
19.4%
0.81%
Champion Chance
11.17%
2.10 Stronger attack
xG per Match
1.90
Insight: Our model gives England the edge, fractionally ahead on five of six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Norway
England
Recent Form & Head to Head
Norway and England have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did Norway vs England end?
Norway 1-2 England (AET) in the Quarter-final stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Miami Gardens, FL. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get Norway vs England right?
Yes. Our structural model made England the pick at 55% (18/27/55), and the match finished england win (1-2). The model called it.
When and where was Norway vs England played?
Saturday, July 11, 2026, Miami Gardens, FL. Quarter-final stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 18/27/55 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between Norway and England?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between Norway and England in our dataset.