Summary

Panama 0-1 Croatia (FT). Group L, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Croatia at 57% — it called it.

Panama vs Croatia Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

Panama0-1Croatia (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group L tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

Panama

37%Advance

1%Semi

0%Final

0%Champion

Croatia

86%Advance

10%Semi

4%Final

2%Champion

Our model called it

We made Croatia our pick at 57%, and that's how it finished (0-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: Croatia 57% Structural: 16/28/57 Actual: Croatia win (0-1)

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Final Result FT

Tue, Jun 23 · Toronto · Match 2 · Group L

Panama

Croatia

Full-time Score Model called it

0 FT 1

Panama Croatia

Model pick: Croatia at 57%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

MildToronto conditions

0 / 1955.4 kmTravel, PAN / CRO

6 days eachRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

76 mToronto elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

Croatia edged past Panama 1-0 in Group L at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Ante Budimir, set up by Josip Stanišić, opened the scoring on 54'.

Croatia controlled the ball with 58% possession and 6 shots to Panama's 8. An expected-goals figure of 0.55 to 1.65 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Croatia generated the clearer chances by some distance.

Our structural model had made Croatia the 57% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Panama 16%, Draw 28%, Croatia 57%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

Panama

FT 0 - 1

Croatia

xG 0.55 vs 1.65

Total shots

Shots on goal

42%

Possession

58%

Corners

Fouls

79%

Pass accuracy

84%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

352

Total passes

512

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

Croatia beat Panama 1-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group L clash. The only goal arrived after the restart, in a second half that also brought two bookings and nine substitutions.

Panama

0 - 1 FT

Croatia

1 Goals

2 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

9 Substitutions

3 Key Moments

No goals, cards, or substitutions in this half.

46'

Petar Musa for Ante Budimir SUB

46'

Joško Gvardiol for Andrej Kramarić SUB

54'

Ante Budimir Assist: Josip Stanišić GOAL

61'

Yoel Bárcenas YELLOW

72'

Marco Pašalić for Luka Sučić SUB

72'

Mateo Kovačić for Petar Sučić SUB

77'

Jiovany Ramos for Cecilio Waterman SUB

81'

Luka Modrić for Mario Pašalić SUB

83'

José Fajardo for Azarias Londoño SUB

90'

César Blackman for Eric Davis SUB

90'

Yoel Bárcenas for Tomás Rodríguez SUB

90'

Petar Sučić YELLOW

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Panama vs Croatia in this World Cup 2026 Group L clash. Panama set up in a 5-4-1 and Croatia in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below.

Panama vs Croatia

Panama 5-4-1 Confirmed XI

Yoel Bárcenas Key player · 6.8

Michael Amir Murillo Key player · 7.3

Puma Key player · 6.2

Goalkeeper

22 Orlando Mosquera 6.8 GK

Defence

23 Michael Amir Murillo 7.3 RB

16 Andrés Andrade 7.1 CB

2 César Blackman 6.2 RB

3 José Córdoba 6.3 CB

13 Jiovany Ramos 7.2 CB

Midfield

14 Carlos Harvey 6.2 DM

6 Cristian Martínez 6.5 DM

Attack

11 Yoel Bárcenas 6.8 RW

17 José Fajardo 6.5 CF

7 Puma 6.2 LW

77' Cecilio Waterman for Jiovany Ramos

83' Azarias Londoño for José Fajardo

90' Eric Davis for César Blackman

90' Tomás Rodríguez for Yoel Bárcenas

Croatia 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI

Luka Modrić Key player · 7.5

Ivan Perišić Key player · 6.8

Mateo Kovačić Key player · 6.7

Goalkeeper

1 Dominik Livaković 6.6 GK

Defence

3 Marin Pongračić 6.8 CB

4 Joško Gvardiol 7.6 CB

2 Josip Stanišić 7.1 RB

6 Josip Šutalo 7.2 CB

Midfield

10 Luka Modrić 7.5 CM

8 Mateo Kovačić 6.7 CM

14 Ivan Perišić 6.8 LM

16 Martin Baturina 7.2 AM

Attack

26 Petar Musa 6.5 CF

24 Marco Pašalić 6.8 RW

46' Ante Budimir for Petar Musa

46' Andrej Kramarić for Joško Gvardiol

72' Luka Sučić for Marco Pašalić

72' Petar Sučić for Mateo Kovačić

81' Mario Pašalić for Luka Modrić

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

Panama's Outlook

Their last outing: a loss vs England (0-2). Live-form lens has them at 22%, a 6pp split from the structural read worth noting.

Aníbal Godoy (Midfielder, 36) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Alberto Quintero (Midfielder, 39) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Croatia's Outlook

Last time out: lost vs Portugal (1-2). Live-form lens: 51% (6pp divergence from structural).

Luka Modrić (Midfielder, 41) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Ivan Perišić (Forward, 37) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.46 goals here.

BTTS at 43% and Over 2.5 at 45% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The Croatia win line (57%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

Panama CONCACAF

Group L, 4th

UEFA Croatia

Group L, 2nd

15.8%

Win Probability

Favourite 56.7%

36.9%

Advance to Knockout

86.1%

0.6%

Reach the Semis

10.1%

0.1%

Reach the Final

0.03%

Champion Chance

1.56%

0.63

xG per Match

Stronger attack 0.93

Insight: Our model gives Croatia the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group L standings & all matches

Group L: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

Panama

Aníbal Godoy C

Midfielder · 36 · San Diego FC (USA)

160Caps

4Goals

Alberto Quintero

Midfielder · 39 · CD Plaza Amador (PAN)

141Caps

7Goals

Eric Davis

Defender · 35 · CD Plaza Amador (PAN)

107Caps

9Goals

Yoel Bárcenas

Midfielder · 33 · Mazatlán FC (MEX)

105Caps

10Goals

Croatia

Luka Modrić C

Midfielder · 41 · AC Milan (ITA)

199Caps

29Goals

Ivan Perišić

Forward · 37 · PSV Eindhoven (NED)

155Caps

38Goals

Andrej Kramarić

Forward · 35 · TSG Hoffenheim (GER)

117Caps

36Goals

Mateo Kovačić

Midfielder · 32 · Manchester City FC (ENG)

114Caps

5Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

L0-2

vs England

L0-1

vs Croatia

L0-1

vs Ghana

D1-1

vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

W4-2

vs Dominican Republic

View match analysis

L1-2

vs Portugal

W2-1

vs Ghana

W1-0

vs Panama

L2-4

vs England

W2-1

vs Slovenia

View match analysis

1 meeting on record between Panama and Croatia.

Year	Score
2026	Panama 0-1 Croatia

View match analysis

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Panama vs Croatia end?

Panama 0-1 Croatia (FT) in the Group L stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Toronto. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get Panama vs Croatia right?

Yes. Our structural model made Croatia the pick at 57% (16/28/57), and the match finished croatia win (0-1). The model called it.

When and where was Panama vs Croatia played?

Tuesday, June 23, 2026, Toronto. Group L stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 16/28/57 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between Panama and Croatia?

Before this match, Panama and Croatia had met 1 time: 0 Panama wins, 1 Croatia win, 0 draws.